12721 Westly Lane, San Deigo - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131--4 beds, 3 baths, 3,390 sqft on 6,000 sqft lot with view of canyons.--08/2004: first purchased from builder for $883,000--06/2007: purchased by current owner for $1.375 million

12728 Westly Lane, San Diego - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131

Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

Using foreclosure.com as the source, foreclosure figures are listed first, pre-foreclosures are listed next, with the % of pre-foreclosures moving forward to foreclosures in parentheses. These are cumulative numbers. Special thanks to reader moqui for Aug '05 and June '06 data.

San Diego County
08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
12/30/06: 1,251/4,637 (27.0%)
01/30/07: 1,475/4,760 (31.0%)
02/27/07: 1,879/5,008 (37.5%)

Back in August of '07 BMIT featured a flipper flopping away in the Palomino neighborhood of 4Closure Ranch. After the purchase of the flip in February of '06 and holding on for a year, Cristina the Flopper® listed the home on the market in February of '07.

15266 Winesprings Court, San Diego/4S Ranch, CA 92127 (4,136 sqft)

Yes, this is in the more undesireable part of Lake Forest, the old El Toro to be exact. But price declines got to start somewhere...

This neighborhood reached its peak $/sqft with this home back in May of '05:
23235 Sky Dr., Lake Forest, CA 92630--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,255 sqft--05/2005: purchased for $705,000 ($313/sqft)

BMIT first featured this in-fill-detached condo development on the south side of Route 78 in San Marcos back in August of '07. As prices have come down further, it is time for another update.

Here's a buyer that ignored all of the leading indicators, the historic high inventory, the declining sales, and even the declining median price. A year and a half later, how do you comfort yourself if you made this small little mistake?

931 Mira Lago Way, San Marcos, CA 92078
--4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,186 sq ft
--09/2006: purchased for $595,500 ($272/sqft)

14160 BRYCE POINT, Poway, CA 92064
--4 beds, 5.5 baths, 7,716 sq ft on 1.3 acres
--05/2005: purchased for $3.42 million
--06/2007: listed on MLS for $3.295 million
--Price Reduced: 08/23/07 -- $3,295,000 to $2,995,000

Few of the interesting points here regarding these 11 homes:--2 out of 11 are listed for sale--11 out of 11 were purchased or constructed after 2003--11 out of 11 were refi'd, purchased or constructed after 2004--4 of 11 are from 4S Ranch proper--2 of 11 are from Santaluz
11353 AVENIDA DE LOS LOBOS #E, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,230 sqft
--11/04/2005: purchased for $390,000
--05/30/2008: NOD
--not listed or pending

17081 W BERNARDO DR #102, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,040 sqft
--09/27/2004: purchased for $362,990
--11/21/2007: listed for $224,777-$249,777
--05/30/2008: NOD

16588 GETTYSBURG DR, SAN DIEGO 92127

1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
--3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
--08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
--09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
--10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

Spelling mistakes on the MLS are not unusual, but this gives us a glimpse into the seller's desperation...43446 MONTE COURT, Temecula, CA 92592
--4 beds, 3.0 baths, 3,036 sq ft
--06/2003: purchased from builder for $378,500.
--10/2006: sold to current sucker for $508,000.
--10/10/2007: current sucker listed home for sale at $590,000.
--10/20/2007: realized he was delusional and reduced to $410,000.

There's so many different angles I can use on this one. But the one I'm going to have to use is simply this: be one with the market, don't fight the flow of the bursting.

You know the market is bad, and it is going to get worse, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. So don't even try to buy right now, just don't do it... even if the place makes you feel at peace with its 'zen-like asian/contemporary interior design.' Just don't do it...

977 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
--4 beds, 5.0 baths, 3,884 sq ft
--05/2005: purchased for $1.389 million ($358/sqft)

Bush and Paulson rushed out with a plan to freeze the ARM reset...
Hillary is pushing for a moratorium on foreclosures...

...but none of them are addressing the main issue. The price gain over the last 6 years was un-natural. The price gain from 2001 to 2006 left millions of Americans unable to afford a home. And as the prices finally start rolling toward affordable range, these guys are trying to put a stop to it!

Here's two homes in a development built circa early 1970 in Encinitas:

Back in July of last year we featured the RSF Triumvirate, who between the three of them purchased 3 model homes in Florida's Suncoast at $4.7 million at the peak of the market in 2005.

Checking up on how the homes are doing, it looks like one of the three have been sold...

18930 KNOLL LANDING DR, FORT MYERS, FL 33908 (3,820 sqft)
--08/2005: purchased for $1.65 million.
--01/2007: listed for $1.75 million.

Today's front page article in San Diego's Union Tribune documents the saga of a hard working immigrant family scooping up a foreclosure bargain in the City Heights area of San Diego.

Here's the excerpt from the story:

"Blas Vazquez, 40, a father of four who works the overnight shift at Ralphs in Carmel Mountain Ranch, bought a foreclosed home in City Heights. For years he and his wife, Maria, and their children, ages 9 to 16, have lived in a small apartment nearby.

“We tried to buy a condo for about a year, but we couldn't afford it because the price was so high,” said Blas Vazquez, who has a second job as a gardener to make ends meet.

A month ago Jim the Realtor reminded us of the backlog of REOs using the Deutsche Bank as an example. In his survey back in December of '07, Jim found the following:

Here is the survey of 123 Deutsche REOs in North County:
--64 active listings
--18 pending listings
--41 homes not on market yet (33%)

Jim reported at the time that his foreclosing neighbor at the time was still living rent free 4 months after their foreclosure. Which reminds us of this gem in 4Closure Ranch...

Black Rail Ridge is a small in-fill project off Poinsettia in Carlsbad's 92011 (yes, the zipcode that held down the fort as per the Union Tribune just this past January). The development consists of eleven 3,400 sq ft homes on a single street, Triton Street. And just as 92011 is as special as zipcodes come, Triton Street is a street filled with magic and dreams come true.

As an owner on this very very special street, the owner of 1598 Triton Street is currently trying to realize his own dream with the listing of his McMansion:

1598 Triton St., Carlsbad, CA 92011
--4 beds, 4.0 baths, 3,434 sq ft "model home"
--10/2006: purchased for $975,000.
--01/2008: entertaining offers between $1 million to $1.2 million.

The Ranchos at Vistamonte in San Pasqual Valley consist of 80 homes in a gated community surrounded by rocky hills with dry bushes. Whether it was luck or good planning, the recent firestorm charred the entire surrounding hillside but spared the entire community, including a few homes in construction with bare 2 by 4's.

Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.

Rob Dawg's recent post on Greg Swann was the latest follow up to the long standing saga of the infamous war of 'flying monkeys and brown shirts' vs. REALTOR® Swann and friends. As Greg's fellow REALTOR® friends depart en masse, let's take a look at this gem printed in the Arizona Republic circa December of '06:

"But the burning question is, have we found the bottom of the market?

That's a complicated question.

Doomsayers insist that housing prices will plummet or at least undergo a regression to mean appreciation.

What this means is that if West Valley homes "should have" appreciated by 6 percent a year, we will have to give back the gains of recent years, either by a quick drop in values or a long stagnation.

We learned over the weekend how dangerous it is to purchase at a time of pricing free fall. Certainly Mr. Vazquez's $30k to $55k loss just after closing on his home bring to light the events happening in the inner city zone of San Diego.

But what about other inner-city-like areas in SoCal? Today, we journey to the other end of SoCal to Oxnard, where the boom caused a false spike of epic proportion. Here's the $/sqft on one Lombard Street in a newer part of Oxnard:Here's one example of the village idiot that bought at the very peak. Check out the almost $300k profit the original owner made between mid '03 to early '06. That's right folks, a 71% price spike in 2.5 years!

There's a pervasive idea out in the community that the high end of the market is doing much better during this downturn. Unfortunately for the folks in Santaluz (Rancho Santa Fe adjacent master planned golf course community), there are quite a bit of sleepless nights these days.

Unfortunately for Jackie and Brayden of Placentia, their purchase prior to the effects of the credit crunch have rendered them over $100,000 in equity loss in just 4-5 months. But is it just Placentia alone?

Today we travel a bit east to Yorba Linda to find out...

20320 Herbshey Cir., Yorba Linda, CA 92887
--4 beds, 3 baths, 2,256 sqft

One of our BMIT regulars golfer_x has been secretly working on his blog over the last couple of months. The Blog is Housing Kaboom and its main focus is the Inland Empire.

Not that anyone would want to live there, but golfer_x managed to find today something in San Jacinto for less than $90/sqft. (As one of golfer_x's reader puts it, calling it a city is an insult to cities. But hey, the less-than-$100/sqft-club got to start somewhere!)

665 Drake Dr, San Jacinto, CA 92582 (3,148 sqft)
--04/2005: purchased for $339,500.

Early in January BMIT showcased this 5,293 sqft Bressi Ranch mansion after we were tipped off to the shenanigan at this address. It turned out that even as the house was being auctioned off, its owner was still trying to rent it out at $6,500 a month with a $5,000 deposit.

According to the property manager, looks like our friend Jose pulled a fast one on her by insisting that "he was waiting for the banks to remove the NOD." Well, the NOD is gone alright, for the property is now a REO.
A few days ago Jim the Realtor alerted us to this property's listing on the MLS. So who's next in line to get shafted now? As it turns out, the builder is directly in the path of destruction.

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:422
7/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:176

01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)____01/2005: (2,903)
02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)___02/2005: (2,890)
03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)___03/2005: (5,033)
04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)___04/2005: (4,547)
05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)___05/2005: (4,548)
06/2006: 16,692 (3,862)___06/2005: (4,898)

Those of you that have been long time BMIT readers will likely enjoy this blast from the past in Rancho Bernardo.

12252 ESCALA DR, SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
--5 beds, 3 baths, 2,469 sqft.
--04/1987: purchased for $182,000.
--Listing Date: 03/01/06
--Price Reduced: 03/23/06 --- $685,000 to $684,999