CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for August for Victoria.

Highlights include
- 70.6% decrease in starts between August 2006 and August 2007.
- 2% decrease in starts year to date from 2006.
- 31.6% increase in units under construction between August 2006 and August 2007.
- Langford (pop. 22500) has 799 units under construction.
- Saanich (pop. 108000) has 536 units under construction.
- Oak Bay has 15 units under construction.

Those last three points aren't really highlights, I just found them to be interesting.

CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

It's September. Fall is coming, the kids are back in school, and housing inventory should start to increase as the number of sales continues decreasing.

There was a slight SFH inventory increase this past week. The biggest changes are 5 fewer homes priced between $300k and $400k and 7 more homes priced between $500k and $600k. As of today, 72% of all single family homes listed on MLS.ca have an asking price of $500000 or higher.

I know this isn't a Calgary or Alberta housing market blog, but I love watching the average sale price posted on CREB's website drop. Calgary's average sale price has gone from $491k on August 23 (the peak was around $507k) to $477.5k today. That's nearly $14k in 16 days! I wonder how many Albertans will be scurrying to purchase our properties as their bubble bursts!

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.

Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.

There was a significant average price increase between August and September.

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

HHV and Roger beat me to the punch for commentary on the VREB's release of the August sales numbers. Check out their blogs for some great insight.

All that's left is for me to bore you with some graphs, and an update to the football score.

Median single family home prices. Ouch, how the median in Victoria is dropping. The rest of the Capital Region District is really having to take up the slack.

They said it wouldn't happen, but it just did.

The decline in Sacramento home prices has surpassed the total decline of the 1990s housing bust. According to the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the December median home price fell to $280,000, a drop of 28.7% from its August 2005 peak of $392,750. That compares to a 24.1% drop between July 1990 and December 1996.

From Reuters:

Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday...Punta Gorda, Florida, and Stockton, California, are the hardest hit markets in the U.S., with price declines from peak-to-trough forecast at 35.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively.
...
These markets have been hard hit due to several reasons, namely the exiting of investors from the areas, a fair amount of subprime mortgage loans causing an increase in foreclosures and overbuilding by home builders, Zandi told Reuters.Moody's past predictions for Stockton home prices:

From the Sacramento Bee:

In the most ominous indicator yet of the capital region's struggling housing market, January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. January's 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties was only 33 more than the 1,782 foreclosures recorded in the same counties that month, according to statistics from La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla and Foreclosures.com. of Fair Oaks.
...

The number of listings available on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria increased this past week. This includes
- 39 more condos.
- 3 more townhomes.
- 32 more SFH.

The largest increase in listings of SFH by price breakdown was in the $300k to $400k range. There are 10 more houses on MLS.ca in this price range this week.

Even with the increase in SFH listings, the pie chart breakdown is still very top heavy.

From the Sacramento Bee: For new and existing homes combined: Sacramento County's October median sales price fell to $299,500. That's the first dip below $300,000 as the price slump continues and the lowest median price since April 2004. Sales prices have now fallen 22.6 percent from their August 2005 peak of $387,000, DataQuick reported.
...

Median asking price year-over-year change: -24.8% ($89,000)

Median asking price change since August 2005: -32.5% ($129,900)

For more Sacramento price statistics go here.

From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County, where median sales prices of new and existing homes combined are now 18.3 percent below this time last year, is still California's hardest-hit urban county for declining values.
...
Sacramento County's median sales price for existing homes fell to $285,000 from $295,000 the previous month. That's down 24 percent from the August 2005 peak of $374,000 and lowest since $275,000 in April 2004.

John August maintains one of the essential blogs on screenwriting and Hollywood. In a post from a few hours ago, he frames the current situation with typical wisdom:For any writer — WGA or otherwise — tomorrow would seem an especially important day to be on the picket lines. If the strike is ending, it’s your last chance to be part of the picket line. If it’s not ending, then a big showing on

Home prices in the Sacramento region fell by the largest amount on record, according to a report [pdf] released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Sacramento's House Price Index (HPI) dropped 8.41% in the third quarter, the largest year-over-year decline since 1977, the year the government started tracking home appreciation for the Sacramento real estate market.

Top 5 year-over-year price declines since 1977:

2007 Q3: -8.41%
1983 Q3: -7.80%
1994 Q4: -6.67%
1995 Q1: -6.45%
1994 Q3: -6.24%

Change in median asking price (year-over-year): -27.9%

Change in median asking price (since August 2005): -35.2%
Source: Housing Tracker

AgentBubble has posted some numbers for February over at the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog. Year-over-year change:

From MarketWatch:U.S. home prices were falling in every region of the country in September, according to a closely watched index of home prices released Tuesday. Home prices fell in September in all 20 major cities covered by the Case-Shiller price index, even in cities that had been holding up before the August freeze in mortgage markets, Standard & Poor's reported.
...

UPDATE: Please note that this sale expired August 1st.

That's right! We're crazy, crazy, crazy for slashing prices this low -- must be the heat! Visit VeganLunchBox.com to take advantage of my Summer Clearance Blow Out Sale: from now until August 1st buy TWO COPIES FOR $30.00! You heard right: two copies of Vegan Lunch Box for just $30.00! *

This week the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their existing home sales report for the third quarter of 2007 showing, in truly stark terms, the tremendously broad nature of the housing downturn.

In an effort to gain a little better perspective on the historic, current and more importantly future direction of inflation, I’m adding coverage of the monthly CPI data to the lineup of regularly occurring posts.

I’ll continue to develop the analysis adding other housing and economic related data in future posts but for now, let’s just get a sense of how well inflation is measured and read.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Today’s results, including data gathered up to November 2007, further confirms the recent slowdown seen in the commercial real estate markets with the National composite index declining 1.36% since the peak set in August 2007.

Most components experienced weakness as compared to respective peaks set between July and August 2007 with the Office component showing a 5.24% peak decline, the Retail component showing a 2.01% peak decline, the Warehouse component showing a 1.57% peak decline and the Apartment component showing an increase of 2.44% as compared to November 2006.

I think it’s safe to say that we have reached yet another turning point in the housing decline and its effect on the economy as a whole.

Even with the tremendous mortgage-credit turmoil and the emergency Fed actions seen in August, traditional consensus held firmly to the notion of “containment”, unwilling to accept that the housing bust would impact the consumer to an extent that might prove recessionary.

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

MLS listings were up and down this week. There are 43 more condo listings today than there were last Saturday. I believe this is largely due to the release of units at the new Radius development. Kudos to them for listing on MLS. This will increase the month end inventory numbers, and thus give a truer picture of the number of homes that are for sale, unlike those condo developments that have hundreds of units for sale, but their inventory numbers are not taken into account by the VREB because they are not listed on MLS. Shame on them.

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.