Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their January read of construction spending again demonstrating the significant extent to which private residential construction is contracting particularly for single family structures.

With the tremendous weakening trend continuing, total residential construction spending fell 19.69% as compared to January 2007 and 34.52% from the peak set in February 2006.

Worse off though was private single family residential construction spending which declined 32.13% as compared to January 2007 and a truly grotesque 49.75% from the peak also set in February 2006.

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released their December read of construction spending again demonstrated the significant extent to which private residential construction is contracting particularly for single family structures.

With the tremendous weakening trend continuing, total residential construction spending fell 20.44% as compared to December 2006 and 33.62% from the peak set in February 2006.

Worse off though was private single family residential construction spending which declined 30.80% as compared to December 2006 and a truly grotesque 47.09% from the peak also set in February 2006.

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released their November read of construction spending again demonstrated the significant extent to which private residential construction is contracting particularly for single family structures.

With the tremendous weakening trend continuing, total residential construction spending fell 17.81% as compared to November 2006 and 30.33% from the peak set in February 2006.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 41.86% nationally as compared to February 2007.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 53.4%, the South declining 40.7%, the Midwest declining 36.2% and the Northeast declining 20.0%.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 46.42% nationally as compared to March 2007.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 56.8%, the Midwest declining 47.7%, the South declining 42.0%, and the Northeast declining 39.4%.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on a year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 40.3% nationally as compared to January 2007.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 53.8%, the South declining 37.5%, the Midwest declining 34.3% and the Northeast declining 29.7%.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly indicate the intensity of the second leg down in the decline to the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing substantial declines on a year-over-year and month-to-month basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on a year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly indicate a new leg down in the decline to the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing substantial declines on a year-over-year and month-to-month basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Looking back at September’s results (released throughout October) it’s now unequivocally obvious that the nation’s housing markets, having fully transcended the mania that existed primarily in the first half of the decade and now, in its aftermath, after being dramatically and irreparably impaired by the unwinding of the resultant mortgage-credit debacle, are now hurtling headlong into a dramatic new leg down.

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third and final installment of the Q3 2007 GDP report showing an annual growth rate of 4.9%, buoyed by strength in, among other things, nonresidential structures, outstanding exports of goods, and federal, state and local government spending while continuing to be weighed down by tremendous weakness to fixed residential investment.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued declines across many industries, particularly for those related to consumer spending, construction and business vehicles, resulting in a tepid 0.3% increase to total aggregate production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show accelerating weakness falling 3.92% as an aggregate on a year-over-year basis, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting which declined for the twenty first consecutive month by 7.90% on a year-over-year basis.

Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction to wood products seen in at least the last 20 years.

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second installment of the Q3 2007 GDP report showing an upwardly revised growth rate of 4.9%, buoyed by strength in, among other things, nonresidential structures, outstanding exports of goods, and federal, state and local government spending while continuing to be weighed down by tremendous weakness to fixed residential investment.

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first installment of the Q3 2007 GDP report showing a better than expected growth rate of 3.9%, buoyed by strength in, among other things, nonresidential structures, outstanding exports of goods, and federal, state and local government spending while continuing to be weighed down by tremendous weakness to fixed residential investment.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing continued deterioration in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 42.0% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 62.13% peak sales decline nationally.

It’s important to keep in mind that these dramatic declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for October that continued to confirm the hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to July, August and September’s results.

There has been growing speculation and concern that the commercial real estate (CRE) markets will inevitably follow the lead of the residential markets down into a recessionary decline.

The notion of commercial real estate markets suffering a similar downturn as residential is both supported by historical correlations (e.g. residential and non-residential investment) as well as the anecdotally logical outcome for a market that has seen similar levels of loose over-lending.

Fortunately, we need not speculate about the current state of CRE as the MIT Center for Real
Estate tracks commercial property prices with a series of indexes that cover Apartment, Office,
Industrial and Retail property types.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing a further deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to August, September and October’s results.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing widespread declines across industries resulting in a 0.5% decline to production with particularly significant weakness indicated in various consumer, construction and business related durables.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show accelerating weakness falling 1.28% as an aggregate on a year-over-year basis, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting which declined for the twenty first consecutive month by 9.87% on a year-over-year basis.

Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction to wood products seen in at least the last 20 years.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for January showing continued deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 15.09%.

On a year-over-year basis new home sales are continuing to weaken, dropping a truly ugly 33.9% below the sales activity seen in January 2007 and plunging a whopping 56.67% since the peak set in July 2005.

It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the significance of the housing bust.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

Last week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining employment with both the Household and Establishment data clearly indicating recessionary conditions.

For March, total non-farm payrolls declined 80,000 from February while employment results from the Household survey declined 24,000 yielding an unemployment rate of 5.1%.

Additionally, along with the weak results seen in March comes further downward revisions to January and February resulting in 207,000 private non-farm jobs being shed this year.

The report also confirmed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction to wood products seen in at least the last 20 years.

Although automotive production has been showing weakness since the middle of 2004, business vehicle production is now showing a stark contraction.

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read on retail sales showing a decline of 0.6% from January 2008 and a 2.6% increase since February 2007 on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales, on the other hand, experienced a significant decline falling 0.38% since January 2008 and 1.88% compared to February 2007.

Further, adjusted for inflation, discretionary retail sales declined 5.74% since February 2007.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Reflecting both substantial benchmark revisions and ongoing weakness, today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions and a decline to total non-farm payrolls of 17,000 from December 2007.

The report also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Notice that, in aggregate, these payrolls, having peaked in March 2006 and declined 6.83% or 293,100 jobs since then, appear to be headed lower.

While today’s Employment Situation Report showed growth to total non-farm payrolls it also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.