CMHC has released their October "Housing Now" report for Victoria.

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for April for Greater Victoria.

There are currently 4618 active property listings, approximately 550 more than 1 month ago.

I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.

Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.

I think I've heard that all before.

The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.

Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.

CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.

If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?

CMHC has released February's housing starts numbers.

Thus far this year, housing starts are down from 2007. However, we are still at a record number of homes under construction.

What will Victoria's unemployment rate be when the number of homes under construction moves lower to normal levels ( 1/4 of today's homes under construction)????

CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.

CMHC's release of April housing starts for Vancouver Island can be found here. Rising housing inventory shows no sign of slowing down.

It's September. Fall is coming, the kids are back in school, and housing inventory should start to increase as the number of sales continues decreasing.

There was a slight SFH inventory increase this past week. The biggest changes are 5 fewer homes priced between $300k and $400k and 7 more homes priced between $500k and $600k. As of today, 72% of all single family homes listed on MLS.ca have an asking price of $500000 or higher.

I know this isn't a Calgary or Alberta housing market blog, but I love watching the average sale price posted on CREB's website drop. Calgary's average sale price has gone from $491k on August 23 (the peak was around $507k) to $477.5k today. That's nearly $14k in 16 days! I wonder how many Albertans will be scurrying to purchase our properties as their bubble bursts!

The number of listings available on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria increased this past week. This includes
- 39 more condos.
- 3 more townhomes.
- 32 more SFH.

The largest increase in listings of SFH by price breakdown was in the $300k to $400k range. There are 10 more houses on MLS.ca in this price range this week.

Even with the increase in SFH listings, the pie chart breakdown is still very top heavy.

There are 3 more single family homes, 13 more condos, and 7 more townhomes listed on MLS.ca this Saturday over last.

Interestingly, for SFH, the only price ranges that have a decrease in listings today are those priced under $300k and over $700k.

I've now officially been forever priced out of the market!

Just kidding - that happened a long time ago!

Well, September numbers are out. My guesses were close. Total sales = 632. Total inventory = 3381 listings. Average prices up month over month in every category. Average prices up year over year everywhere. It's very reassuring that "There were 17 single family home sales of over $1 million and this had a significant impact on the overall average. Nearly a quarter of all single family homes sold for less than $425,000." Thank goodness for that!

Due to a shortness of time this evening, I'm gonna let the graphs do the talking.

The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

The increase in listings of SFH on MLS.ca that we saw last week disappeared this week. There were 31 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last Saturday. The largest decrease was between $400k and $600k. 29 fewer homes in that price range. Homes priced above $700k, there are 5 more homes listed.

UPDATE: NAR has finally published the September results read here.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was scheduled to release their Pending Home Sales Report covering September 2007 but instead revised their release schedule going forward, combining the pending home sales results with their monthly housing forecast.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:
The average price per square foot of homes sold in the Sacramento metropolitan area fell nearly 15 percent in a year, the biggest drop among 25 major national markets tracked by Radar Logic Inc., the New York-based real estate analyst reported Friday.The Sacramento real estate market has ended up in last place for three consecutive months, beating out markets such as San Diego, Las Vegas, and Tampa. Sacramento also claimed the bottom spot for condo price appreciation for the third month running, with prices plunging 21.5% compared with the prior year.

VREB has posted November's sales numbers. I was close on my estimates! Except for the average townhome price, the numbers don't surprise me. Bev McIvor's two bits have changed from "it’s important to note that nearly a third of single family homes last month sold for under $425,000" this last summer to "The high demand and robust prices show continued strong consumer confidence in the market" this fall. Also, I got a flyer in the mail today from "Condo Conroy" stating "There are FAR fewer units on the market right now than there was last year..." I call bullsh**.

Home prices in the Sacramento region fell by the largest amount on record, according to a report [pdf] released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Sacramento's House Price Index (HPI) dropped 8.41% in the third quarter, the largest year-over-year decline since 1977, the year the government started tracking home appreciation for the Sacramento real estate market.

Top 5 year-over-year price declines since 1977:

2007 Q3: -8.41%
1983 Q3: -7.80%
1994 Q4: -6.67%
1995 Q1: -6.45%
1994 Q3: -6.24%

The number of listings of homes of all types continues to decline. This can be attributed to the fact that it's only 24 days till Christmas!

From two weeks, there are
- 12 fewer condos listed on MLS.ca
- 9 fewer townhomes
- 53 fewer SFH

The decline in listings of SFH this year does not appear to be as steep as last year.

HHV and Roger beat me to the punch for commentary on the VREB's release of the August sales numbers. Check out their blogs for some great insight.

All that's left is for me to bore you with some graphs, and an update to the football score.

Median single family home prices. Ouch, how the median in Victoria is dropping. The rest of the Capital Region District is really having to take up the slack.

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for July.

Once again, Victoria is showing some of the slowest month over month and year over year new house price gains. For the period of July 2006 to July 2007, Victoria had a 1.1% change in the new house price index. Tops was Saskatoon at 51.4%.

"For Canada, the pace of growth in new housing prices slowed for the 11th consecutive month in July. It went from 7.8% in June to 7.7% in July.

Saskatoon set a record high year-over-year increase for the fifth consecutive month. Prices in Winnipeg were 15.7% higher than in July 2006 in the wake of land shortages and development costs. New housing prices in Edmonton continued to increase at a fast pace with a year-over-year increase of 38.4%, due to hikes in land values from developers."

Go figure.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finally released their Pending Home Sales Report for September 2007 showing yet again a truly stark and horrendous continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

Stats Canada has release the New Housing Price Index for August.

The price of a new home in Victoria rose 0.4% between August 2006 and August 2007. Of the cities surveyed, this was the third smallest increase. Windsor (-2.8%) and Charlottetown (0.2%) lead the way. Canada as a whole had an increase of 6.5%.