Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 22,000 and “continued” claims increasing 75,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims increased 48,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreasing 24,000 to 351,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 375,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 29,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing that seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims declining 9,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 69,000 and “continued” claims increasing 47,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 22,000 to 378,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 356,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 32,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 19,000 and “continued” claims increased 21,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 17,000 to 372,000 from last week’s revised 406,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 26,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declining 53,000 to 357,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 410,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 3,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report reflects employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 to 365,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 374,000 claims and “continued” claims went unchanged resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined 18,000 to 357,000 from last week’s revised 375,000 claims while “continued” claims declined 16,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Yesterday, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 15,000 and “continued” claims declining 52,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

I’m going to add the weekly claims to the rotation of recurring economic data and will more fully develop the post over the coming months but for now, take a look at the following charts as they are very telling.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 4,000 to 372,000 from last week’s revised 368,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 36,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 38,000 to 407,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 369,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 97,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report reflects employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 9.67%, job “hires” declined 11.25%, and “separations” declined 6.60% led by a 8.51% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 11.86%, job “hires” declined 6.29%, and “separations” declined 4.82% led by a 10.81% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 8.85%, job “hires” declined 4.63%, and “separations” declined 0.38% led by a 5.47% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

This week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 8.27%, job “hires” declined 9.80%, and “separations” declined 5.06% led by a 11.20% drop in job“quits”, the largest year-over-year decline to voluntary “quitting” activity seen since August 2003.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today’s Employment Situation Report showed unequivocal signs of a slumping recessionary economy with the Household survey indicating an decline of 285,000 in employment and a whopping 861,000 increase in unemployment since April resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% while the Establishment survey showed a decline of 49,0000 non-farm jobs.

With the latest news littered with reports of job cuts and layoffs cutting across many industries and now the largest single monthly increase in the unemployment rate in 22 years, the trend is firmly established and only the extent is in question.

Additionally, along with the weak results seen in May comes additional downward revisions to March and April resulting in 318,000 private non-farm jobs being shed this year.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

Building on Monday and Tuesday’s posts, let’s take a look at some data that might provide a basis for drawing a conclusion to the second question posed, namely:

2.) What might be the extent of job losses related to corporate restructuring in preparation for and as a result of a prolonged recession?

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions with only a 19K increase to non-farm payrolls, a 436K worker decline in civilian labor force employment, a 474K increase to unemployed workers, 179K increase to workers now not in the labor force

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining employment with both the Household and Establishment data clearly indicating recessionary conditions.

For March, total non-farm payrolls declined 80,000 from February while employment results from the Household survey declined 24,000 yielding an unemployment rate of 5.1%.

Additionally, along with the weak results seen in March comes further downward revisions to January and February resulting in 207,000 private non-farm jobs being shed this year.

The report also confirmed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

Witnessing the S&P 500 index slide into “bear market” territory has really increased the overall sense of gloom I get when considering the plight of the economy.

At first I wasn’t sure why I was so surprised… I had been anticipating the housing decline wreaking havoc on the economy for a long while but yet, there was something more ominous in the “twin peaks” chart that just seemed to cut right through all the latest news and developments to the heart of the matter.

To me, it appears that we are dangerously close to having the latest economic downturn being linked so directly to the prior that the two periods inevitably become one.

Reflecting both substantial benchmark revisions and ongoing weakness, today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions and a decline to total non-farm payrolls of 17,000 from December 2007.

The report also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Notice that, in aggregate, these payrolls, having peaked in March 2006 and declined 6.83% or 293,100 jobs since then, appear to be headed lower.

While today’s Employment Situation Report showed growth to total non-farm payrolls it also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.