Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declining 53,000 to 357,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 410,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 3,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report reflects employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Building on Monday and Tuesday’s posts, let’s take a look at some data that might provide a basis for drawing a conclusion to the second question posed, namely:

2.) What might be the extent of job losses related to corporate restructuring in preparation for and as a result of a prolonged recession?

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 1,000 and “continued” claims declining 75,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims increased 48,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 21,000 and “continued” claims increasing 66,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 17,000 to 372,000 from last week’s revised 406,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 26,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 22,000 and “continued” claims increasing 75,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreasing 24,000 to 351,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 375,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 29,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 4,000 to 372,000 from last week’s revised 368,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 36,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing that seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims declining 9,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined 18,000 to 357,000 from last week’s revised 375,000 claims while “continued” claims declined 16,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 to 365,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 374,000 claims and “continued” claims went unchanged resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 38,000 to 407,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 369,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 97,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report reflects employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 19,000 and “continued” claims increased 21,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Reflecting both substantial benchmark revisions and ongoing weakness, today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions and a decline to total non-farm payrolls of 17,000 from December 2007.

The report also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Notice that, in aggregate, these payrolls, having peaked in March 2006 and declined 6.83% or 293,100 jobs since then, appear to be headed lower.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 22,000 to 378,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 356,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 32,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 69,000 and “continued” claims increasing 47,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

Yesterday, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 15,000 and “continued” claims declining 52,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

I’m going to add the weekly claims to the rotation of recurring economic data and will more fully develop the post over the coming months but for now, take a look at the following charts as they are very telling.

Today’s Employment Situation Report showed unequivocal signs of a slumping recessionary economy with the Household survey indicating an decline of 285,000 in employment and a whopping 861,000 increase in unemployment since April resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% while the Establishment survey showed a decline of 49,0000 non-farm jobs.

With the latest news littered with reports of job cuts and layoffs cutting across many industries and now the largest single monthly increase in the unemployment rate in 22 years, the trend is firmly established and only the extent is in question.

Additionally, along with the weak results seen in May comes additional downward revisions to March and April resulting in 318,000 private non-farm jobs being shed this year.

While today’s Employment Situation Report showed growth to total non-farm payrolls it also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Reflecting both substantial benchmark revisions and ongoing weakness, today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating recessionary conditions and a decline to total non-farm payrolls of 62,000 from January and substantial downward revisions to the December 2007 and January 2008 results.

The report also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining employment with both the Household and Establishment data clearly indicating recessionary conditions.

For March, total non-farm payrolls declined 80,000 from February while employment results from the Household survey declined 24,000 yielding an unemployment rate of 5.1%.

Additionally, along with the weak results seen in March comes further downward revisions to January and February resulting in 207,000 private non-farm jobs being shed this year.

The report also confirmed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for November continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions with only a 19K increase to non-farm payrolls, a 436K worker decline in civilian labor force employment, a 474K increase to unemployed workers, 179K increase to workers now not in the labor force