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Collapsedachusetts Existing Home Sales Preview: February 2008

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that February 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the March’s results will likely be well below 3000 units, a significant decline.

After over two years of declining home sales, weakening home prices and now looming recession it appears that Massachusetts may have just entered the price “free-fall” phase of the housing decline where home prices continuously drop even through the spring months which are typically strong in the region.

Stay tuned as next week's S&P/Case-Shiller home price index results will be available for Boston likely showing the most significant decline in the last 12 months.

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  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that April single family home sales crashed 15.8% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed a stunning 26.6% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 8.7% on a year-over-year basis to $314,900 while condo median prices remained unchanged at $275,000.

    It’s also important to note that the April single family home sales count was the lowest April count on record since 1993 and at 2803 units sold was 30.72% below the record April peak set in April 2004.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

    Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a weakening to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    As the decline in demand for residential housing slumps through its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 21.4% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

    Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again showing the truly dismal and deteriorating circumstances that have befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

    Whether it was a slow depression brought on by a local economy that has been eroding for over eight years, well over two years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for untold wealth, the regions housing market has now crossed a dangerous tipping point.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for October that continued to confirm the hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to July, August and September’s results.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for January showing continued deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 15.09%.

    On a year-over-year basis new home sales are continuing to weaken, dropping a truly ugly 33.9% below the sales activity seen in January 2007 and plunging a whopping 56.67% since the peak set in July 2005.

    It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the significance of the housing bust.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing a further deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to August, September and October’s results.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing continued deterioration in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 42.0% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 62.13% peak sales decline nationally.

    It’s important to keep in mind that these dramatic declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing again the utter foolishness of MAR president Doug Azarian’s purported two month long winning streak of increasing home sales earlier this fall.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finally released their Pending Home Sales Report for September 2007 showing yet again a truly stark and horrendous continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January 2008 and simultaneously Standard & Poor’s released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December 2007 both showing, perfectly clearly, the truly dire circumstances that have now befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

    As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

  • This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing again the utter foolishness of former MAR president Doug Azarian’s yearlong optimistic sentiment.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    Continuing down the second slope of the pullback in demand for residential housing, ALL regions are now tracking at or below the lowest values ever recorded with the Northeast now registering over 30% fewer sales than in 2001, the first year Pending Home Sales were tracked.

    As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales have been moving in a “narrow range” and promoting the idea that higher conforming loan limits will thwart the decline.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November 2007 showing again the utter foolishness of MAR president Doug Azarian’s yearlong optimistic sentiment.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November 2007 showing a truly stark and even worsening continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October again confirming, perfectly clearly, that demand for residential real estate, for both single family and condos, has now taken a new and substantial leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets likely as a direct result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes in the credit-mortgage markets.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing yet again a truly stark continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for September continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for November continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Yesterday’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for October continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided their final approximation of annual existing home sales for 2007 on an “up” beat revising their prior estimate up to 5.67 million housing units sold along with providing both their initial estimate for 2008 as well as, of course, another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

  • This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

    I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

    The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

    Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided (oops from last month… the latest 2007 estimate is not quite their final yet…) their latest estimate of annual existing home sales for 2007 revising down their prior estimate marginally to 5.66 million housing units sold along with providing both their current estimate for 2008 as well as, of course, another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their existing home sales report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing, in truly stark terms, the tremendously broad nature of the housing downturn.

    Single family home sales, on a year-over-year basis, are now falling in every state except for Idaho and South Dakota and North Dakota (see chart below and click for larger version and note that NH doesn’t report sales data) with even those states sales growth being flat to anemic.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released yet another downward revision to their outlook for existing home sales for 2007 along with another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

    In an effort to put their absurd bias into perspective I compiled all their forecasts for 2007 home sales into a chart along with a list of prominent quotes supplied with each forecast.

  • First, to all U.K. readers I want to properly and whole heartedly welcome you the housing malaise!

    How’s that for an U.S. export! Take that you Redcoats!

    Recently, the two most prominent and long running monthly U.K. housing price indices registered the largest year-over-year declines in at least 15 years.

    The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through May indicated that U.K. home prices declined 4.4% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series, which reported data through April indicated that U.K. home prices declined 3.68% on a year-over-year basis.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided their latest estimate of annual existing home sales for 2008 revising down their prior estimate to a 4.9 million unit annual pace for the first half of the year and revising up the estimate to 5.8 million unit annual pace in the second half.

    Given the truly awful quality of forecasts provided by NAR economists, I’m going to stick with their estimate for the first half of the year giving them less room for egregious error.

    As usual, the latest forecast comes with another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

    In an effort to put their absurd bias into perspective I compiled all their existing home sales forecasts for 2007 and now 2008 into a chart along with a list of prominent quotes supplied with each forecast.

  • UPDATE: NAR has finally published the September results read here.

    Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was scheduled to release their Pending Home Sales Report covering September 2007 but instead revised their release schedule going forward, combining the pending home sales results with their monthly housing forecast.