In light of recent increases to consumer prices and declining retail sales, I’ve reworked my analysis of the possible correlation between falling home values and declining consumption of the most “discretionary” retail items.

On a “nominal” basis, there appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read on retail sales showing a increase of 0.2% from February 2008 and 2.0% since March 2007 on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales, on the other hand, experienced a significant decline falling 0.58% since February 2008 and 3.66% compared to March 2007.

Further, adjusted for inflation, discretionary retail sales declined 0.61% since February 2008 and 7.05% since March 2007.

In light of yesterday’s results for Producer Prices, and Retail Sales and Today’s results for Consumer Prices, I’m reworking my analysis of the possible correlation between falling home values and declining consumption of the most “discretionary” retail items.

On a “nominal” basis, there appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

Today, the Commerce Department released their monthly Retail Sales Report for October which continued to show an interesting and, with some pretty significant revisions to past results, even more significant correlation between declining consumer spending, particularly on discretionary items, and the decline in home values.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing continued deterioration in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 42.0% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 62.13% peak sales decline nationally.

It’s important to keep in mind that these dramatic declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for January showing continued deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 15.09%.

On a year-over-year basis new home sales are continuing to weaken, dropping a truly ugly 33.9% below the sales activity seen in January 2007 and plunging a whopping 56.67% since the peak set in July 2005.

It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the significance of the housing bust.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that April single family home sales crashed 15.8% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed a stunning 26.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 8.7% on a year-over-year basis to $314,900 while condo median prices remained unchanged at $275,000.

It’s also important to note that the April single family home sales count was the lowest April count on record since 1993 and at 2803 units sold was 30.72% below the record April peak set in April 2004.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finally released their Pending Home Sales Report for September 2007 showing yet again a truly stark and horrendous continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

Continuing down the second slope of the pullback in demand for residential housing, ALL regions are now tracking at or below the lowest values ever recorded with the Northeast now registering over 30% fewer sales than in 2001, the first year Pending Home Sales were tracked.

As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales have been moving in a “narrow range” and promoting the idea that higher conforming loan limits will thwart the decline.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing a further deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to August, September and October’s results.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a weakening to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing slumps through its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 21.4% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for October that continued to confirm the hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to July, August and September’s results.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing yet again a truly stark continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November 2007 showing a truly stark and even worsening continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

Yesterday’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for October continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

First, to all U.K. readers I want to properly and whole heartedly welcome you the housing malaise!

How’s that for an U.S. export! Take that you Redcoats!

Recently, the two most prominent and long running monthly U.K. housing price indices registered the largest year-over-year declines in at least 15 years.

The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through May indicated that U.K. home prices declined 4.4% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series, which reported data through April indicated that U.K. home prices declined 3.68% on a year-over-year basis.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for September continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for November continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for December continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.

Furthermore, the decline to the 10 city composite index declined a record 9.82% as compared to December 2006 far surpassing the all prior year-over-year decline records firmly placing the current decline in uncharted territory in terms of relative intensity.

This report appears to continue to indicate that during the fall we essentially entered the serious price “free-fall” phase (look at the charts below) of the housing decline.

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their January read of construction spending again demonstrating the significant extent to which private residential construction is contracting particularly for single family structures.

With the tremendous weakening trend continuing, total residential construction spending fell 19.69% as compared to January 2007 and 34.52% from the peak set in February 2006.

Worse off though was private single family residential construction spending which declined 32.13% as compared to January 2007 and a truly grotesque 49.75% from the peak also set in February 2006.

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again showing the truly dismal and deteriorating circumstances that have befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

Whether it was a slow depression brought on by a local economy that has been eroding for over eight years, well over two years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for untold wealth, the regions housing market has now crossed a dangerous tipping point.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for March continues to reflect the extraordinary weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now 19 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.

Readers should take a moment to carefully reflect on the charts below as this level of price decline occurring simultaneously across the whole of the U.S. is not only unprecedented but is probably the purest expression of the fundamental collapse of wealth and well being for our nations typical home owning household.

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing again the utter foolishness of MAR president Doug Azarian’s purported two month long winning streak of increasing home sales earlier this fall.

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January 2008 and simultaneously Standard & Poor’s released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December 2007 both showing, perfectly clearly, the truly dire circumstances that have now befallen the Bay State’s housing market.