Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing a tepid 0.1% from February’s revised level resulting in a decline of 2.02% on a year-over-year basis, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing 0.1% from March but declining 1.83% compared to April 2007, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

This post combines the results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February confirmed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to a final reading of 70.8, a decline of 22.45% compared to February 2007.

I’ve decided to roll the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a combined post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

I’ve decided to roll the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a combined post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s preliminary release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February showed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to 69.6 from 78.4 in January.

It’s important to note that this is the lowest sentiment reading seen since the recessionary period of February 1992.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March confirmed the recent plunge in consumer sentiment falling further still to a reading of 70.5, a decline of 20.25% compared to March 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April showed another startling plunge in consumer sentiment to a reading of 63.2, a decline of 27.44% compared to April 2007.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for December confirmed again that the U.S. consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Today’s results, including data gathered up to November 2007, further confirms the recent slowdown seen in the commercial real estate markets with the National composite index declining 1.36% since the peak set in August 2007.

Most components experienced weakness as compared to respective peaks set between July and August 2007 with the Office component showing a 5.24% peak decline, the Retail component showing a 2.01% peak decline, the Warehouse component showing a 1.57% peak decline and the Apartment component showing an increase of 2.44% as compared to November 2006.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Although recent results have revealed some slowing across all classes of commercial real estate, December’s results show a continuation of price growth.

All components experienced growth both on a year-over-year basis and as compared to the prior monthly result with the greatest gains seen in office properties.

The charts below show the National index and the component indices since 1993 (click for larger).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for November showed in unequivocal terms that the US consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Although recent results have revealed some slowing across all classes of commercial real estate, January’s results again show a continuation of price growth.

All components experienced growth both on a year-over-year basis with all but the “office” component gaining as compared to the prior monthly result.

The charts below show the National index and the component indices since 1994 (click for larger).

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 9.67%, job “hires” declined 11.25%, and “separations” declined 6.60% led by a 8.51% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on a year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 40.3% nationally as compared to January 2007.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 53.8%, the South declining 37.5%, the Midwest declining 34.3% and the Northeast declining 29.7%.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.