This post combines the results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February confirmed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to a final reading of 70.8, a decline of 22.45% compared to February 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March confirmed the recent plunge in consumer sentiment falling further still to a reading of 70.5, a decline of 20.25% compared to March 2007.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for December confirmed again that the U.S. consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April showed another startling plunge in consumer sentiment to a reading of 63.2, a decline of 27.44% compared to April 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.4% from January’s revised level and 1.53% on a year-over-year basis compared to February 2007, a fifth straight monthly decline and sixth straight year-over-year decline leaving the index at 135.4.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.1% from December’s level and 1.52% on a year-over-year basis compared to January 2007, a fourth straight monthly decline leaving the index at 135.8.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the back to back declines of 1.81% and 1.52% seem to suggest that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for November showed in unequivocal terms that the US consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing 0.1% from March but declining 1.83% compared to April 2007, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing a tepid 0.1% from February’s revised level resulting in a decline of 2.02% on a year-over-year basis, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a weakening to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing slumps through its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 21.4% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 22,000 to 378,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 356,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 32,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a decrease of 0.5% from September and a 1.8% increase since October 2006.

More importantly though, production of “final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged recession.

The release came along with some guarded outlook from Chief Economist David Seiders who is now suggests that more action on the part of legislators is needed to help bring recovery to the market.

Today, State Street Global Markets released their latest monthly read of Investor Confidence showing that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 6.0% since
January while European and Asian investor confidence remained relatively flat to mildly negative all resulting in an increase of 3.5% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased since last week to 5.61% while the purchase application volume increased 12.0% and the refinance application volume decreased a 1.0% compared to last week’s results.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased since last week to 5.72% while the purchase application volume decreased 0.3% and the refinance application volume decreased a 3.0% compared to last week’s results.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 41.86% nationally as compared to February 2007.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 53.4%, the South declining 40.7%, the Midwest declining 36.2% and the Northeast declining 20.0%.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.