This post combines the results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February confirmed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to a final reading of 70.8, a decline of 22.45% compared to February 2007.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for December confirmed again that the U.S. consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March confirmed the recent plunge in consumer sentiment falling further still to a reading of 70.5, a decline of 20.25% compared to March 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April showed another startling plunge in consumer sentiment to a reading of 63.2, a decline of 27.44% compared to April 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.1% from December’s level and 1.52% on a year-over-year basis compared to January 2007, a fourth straight monthly decline leaving the index at 135.8.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the back to back declines of 1.81% and 1.52% seem to suggest that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.4% from January’s revised level and 1.53% on a year-over-year basis compared to February 2007, a fifth straight monthly decline and sixth straight year-over-year decline leaving the index at 135.4.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing 0.1% from March but declining 1.83% compared to April 2007, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing a tepid 0.1% from February’s revised level resulting in a decline of 2.02% on a year-over-year basis, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for November showed in unequivocal terms that the US consumer is feeling the burn from declining home values, increased fuel costs and a general uncertainty about the future of the economy.

In fact, short of a brief plunge in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the current levels for the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Consumer Expectations are at lows not seen since the early 1990’s.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a decrease of 0.5% from September and a 1.8% increase since October 2006.

More importantly though, production of “final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Although recent results have revealed some slowing across all classes of commercial real estate, January’s results again show a continuation of price growth.

All components experienced growth both on a year-over-year basis with all but the “office” component gaining as compared to the prior monthly result.

The charts below show the National index and the component indices since 1994 (click for larger).

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Today, State Street Global Markets released their latest monthly read of Investor Confidence showing that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 6.0% since
January while European and Asian investor confidence remained relatively flat to mildly negative all resulting in an increase of 3.5% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Today’s results, including data gathered up to November 2007, further confirms the recent slowdown seen in the commercial real estate markets with the National composite index declining 1.36% since the peak set in August 2007.

Most components experienced weakness as compared to respective peaks set between July and August 2007 with the Office component showing a 5.24% peak decline, the Retail component showing a 2.01% peak decline, the Warehouse component showing a 1.57% peak decline and the Apartment component showing an increase of 2.44% as compared to November 2006.

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged recession.

The release came along with some guarded outlook from Chief Economist David Seiders who is now suggests that more action on the part of legislators is needed to help bring recovery to the market.

Like the MIT/CRE Property Index, Standard & Poor’s also tracks commercial real estate (CRE) prices for various commercial property types.

Although recent results have revealed some slowing across all classes of commercial real estate, December’s results show a continuation of price growth.

All components experienced growth both on a year-over-year basis and as compared to the prior monthly result with the greatest gains seen in office properties.

The charts below show the National index and the component indices since 1993 (click for larger).

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased since last week to 5.61% while the purchase application volume increased 12.0% and the refinance application volume decreased a 1.0% compared to last week’s results.