I’ve decided to roll the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a combined post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

I’ve decided to roll the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a combined post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s preliminary release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February showed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to 69.6 from 78.4 in January.

It’s important to note that this is the lowest sentiment reading seen since the recessionary period of February 1992.

This post combines the results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic indicators into a post that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of both the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers and businesses as well the overall trend of economic circumstances.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for February confirmed a shocking plunge in consumer sentiment to a final reading of 70.8, a decline of 22.45% compared to February 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March confirmed the recent plunge in consumer sentiment falling further still to a reading of 70.5, a decline of 20.25% compared to March 2007.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April showed another startling plunge in consumer sentiment to a reading of 63.2, a decline of 27.44% compared to April 2007.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a decrease of 0.5% from September and a 1.8% increase since October 2006.

More importantly though, production of “final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

In an effort to gain a little better perspective on the historic, current and more importantly future direction of inflation, I’m adding coverage of the monthly CPI data to the lineup of regularly occurring posts.

I’ll continue to develop the analysis adding other housing and economic related data in future posts but for now, let’s just get a sense of how well inflation is measured and read.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.1% from December’s level and 1.52% on a year-over-year basis compared to January 2007, a fourth straight monthly decline leaving the index at 135.8.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the back to back declines of 1.81% and 1.52% seem to suggest that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing 0.1% from March but declining 1.83% compared to April 2007, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.4% from January’s revised level and 1.53% on a year-over-year basis compared to February 2007, a fifth straight monthly decline and sixth straight year-over-year decline leaving the index at 135.4.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to indicate troubled times ahead increasing a tepid 0.1% from February’s revised level resulting in a decline of 2.02% on a year-over-year basis, leaving the index at 102.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on a year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Looking back at October’s results (released throughout November) it’s now unequivocally obvious that the nation’s housing markets, having fully transcended the mania that existed primarily in the first half of the decade and now, in its aftermath, after being dramatically and irreparably impaired by the unwinding of the resultant mortgage-credit debacle, are now hurtling headlong into a dramatic new leg down.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

I think it’s safe to say that we have reached yet another turning point in the housing decline and its effect on the economy as a whole.

Even with the tremendous mortgage-credit turmoil and the emergency Fed actions seen in August, traditional consensus held firmly to the notion of “containment”, unwilling to accept that the housing bust would impact the consumer to an extent that might prove recessionary.

Given the recent flurry of interest in the outcome of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey, I’m adding it to the lineup of regular economic indicator posts.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index (more on diffusion indices later) generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

Continuing down the second slope of the pullback in demand for residential housing, ALL regions are now tracking at or below the lowest values ever recorded with the Northeast now registering over 30% fewer sales than in 2001, the first year Pending Home Sales were tracked.

As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales have been moving in a “narrow range” and promoting the idea that higher conforming loan limits will thwart the decline.

Last week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.

“Final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for April showing renewed weakness to the regions manufacturing sector with the current activity index deteriorating to -24.9 from March’s -17.40, the fifth consecutive negative monthly result clearly indicating contraction is underway.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

In light of recent increases to consumer prices and declining retail sales, I’ve reworked my analysis of the possible correlation between falling home values and declining consumption of the most “discretionary” retail items.

On a “nominal” basis, there appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for March showing some moderation in the recent weakness seen in the regions manufacturing sector.

The survey of the Philadelphia regions manufacturing sector has been a pretty solid leading indicator of the overall strength or weakness and recession experienced by general economy.

As you can see by the following chart (click for larger version), during the past three post-recession expansion periods, the “current” diffusion index generally vacillated between 0 and 35 while the “future” index left the period of contraction at an elevated level and eventually joining the “current” index.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

In light of yesterday’s results for Producer Prices, and Retail Sales and Today’s results for Consumer Prices, I’m reworking my analysis of the possible correlation between falling home values and declining consumption of the most “discretionary” retail items.

On a “nominal” basis, there appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing widespread declines across industries resulting in a 0.5% decline to production with particularly significant weakness indicated in various consumer, construction and business related durables.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show accelerating weakness falling 1.28% as an aggregate on a year-over-year basis, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting which declined for the twenty first consecutive month by 9.87% on a year-over-year basis.

Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction to wood products seen in at least the last 20 years.

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged recession.

The release came along with some guarded outlook from Chief Economist David Seiders who is now suggests that more action on the part of legislators is needed to help bring recovery to the market.

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January 2008 and simultaneously Standard & Poor’s released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December 2007 both showing, perfectly clearly, the truly dire circumstances that have now befallen the Bay State’s housing market.