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Pending Home Sales: January 2008

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

It is very likely that we are now seeing the spiraling feedback effect of sharply declining prices and the palpable sense of recession working to depress buyer confidence thereby causing continued and even accelerating declines in housing demand.

As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales will rise “notably” by the second half of the year as a result of the new super jumbo GSE “conforming” loan limits.

“The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions, … Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."

The following chart shows the national pending homes sales index since 2005 compared monthly. Notice that each year, the months value is decreasing consistently (click for larger version).

The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Note that in the above charts, I had to use the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data series as NAR changed the methodology for their Seasonally Adjusted (SA) series a while back and never republished the numbers.

Look at the January’s seasonally adjusted pending home sales results and draw your own conclusion:

  • Nationally the index was down 19.6% as compared to January 2007.
  • The Northeast region was down 28.0% as compared to January 2007.
  • The Midwest region was down 13.3% as compared to January 2007.
  • The South region was down 23.8% as compared to January 2007.
  • The West region was down 12.7% as compared to January 2007.
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  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a weakening to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    As the decline in demand for residential housing slumps through its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 21.4% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    Continuing down the second slope of the pullback in demand for residential housing, ALL regions are now tracking at or below the lowest values ever recorded with the Northeast now registering over 30% fewer sales than in 2001, the first year Pending Home Sales were tracked.

    As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales have been moving in a “narrow range” and promoting the idea that higher conforming loan limits will thwart the decline.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finally released their Pending Home Sales Report for September 2007 showing yet again a truly stark and horrendous continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing yet again a truly stark continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November 2007 showing a truly stark and even worsening continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for January showing continued deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 15.09%.

    On a year-over-year basis new home sales are continuing to weaken, dropping a truly ugly 33.9% below the sales activity seen in January 2007 and plunging a whopping 56.67% since the peak set in July 2005.

    It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the significance of the housing bust.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

    Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for October that continued to confirm the hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to July, August and September’s results.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing a further deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to August, September and October’s results.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing continued deterioration in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 42.0% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 62.13% peak sales decline nationally.

    It’s important to keep in mind that these dramatic declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

    Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

  • UPDATE: NAR has finally published the September results read here.

    Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was scheduled to release their Pending Home Sales Report covering September 2007 but instead revised their release schedule going forward, combining the pending home sales results with their monthly housing forecast.

  • Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on a year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

    Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 40.3% nationally as compared to January 2007.

    Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 53.8%, the South declining 37.5%, the Midwest declining 34.3% and the Northeast declining 29.7%.

    Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

    It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January again confirming, perfectly clearly, the tremendous weakness in the demand of existing residential real estate with both single family homes and condos declining uniformly across the nation’s housing markets.

    Although this continued and even worsening falloff in demand is mostly as a result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes that are taking place in the credit-mortgage markets, consumer sentiment surveys are now indicating that consumers are materially feeling the current recessionary trend which will likely result in even further significant sales declines to come.

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    It’s also important to note that the April single family home sales count was the lowest April count on record since 1993 and at 2803 units sold was 30.72% below the record April peak set in April 2004.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

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    Single family home sales, on a year-over-year basis, are now falling in every state except for Idaho and South Dakota and North Dakota (see chart below and click for larger version and note that NH doesn’t report sales data) with even those states sales growth being flat to anemic.

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  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January 2008 and simultaneously Standard & Poor’s released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December 2007 both showing, perfectly clearly, the truly dire circumstances that have now befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

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  • Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly indicate a new leg down in the decline to the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing substantial declines on a year-over-year and month-to-month basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

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  • Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity of the total washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets and particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

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  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again showing the truly dismal and deteriorating circumstances that have befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

    Whether it was a slow depression brought on by a local economy that has been eroding for over eight years, well over two years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for untold wealth, the regions housing market has now crossed a dangerous tipping point.