Skip to Content

If I Only Waited... In Cresent Court, San Marcos

BMIT first featured this in-fill-detached condo development on the south side of Route 78 in San Marcos back in August of '07. As prices have come down further, it is time for another update.

Here's a buyer that ignored all of the leading indicators, the historic high inventory, the declining sales, and even the declining median price. A year and a half later, how do you comfort yourself if you made this small little mistake?

931 Mira Lago Way, San Marcos, CA 92078
--4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,186 sq ft
--09/2006: purchased for $595,500 ($272/sqft)

974 Mira Lago Way, San Marcos, CA 92078
--4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,186 sq ft
--05/2006: purchased for $579,000 ($265/sqft)
--12/2007: REO to bank for $447,450
--01/2008: listed as REO for $384,900 ($176/sqft)

The price of not waiting here after a year and 4 months is a staggering $210,600, or 35.4% decline in value.

At this price, sounds like this place might actually pencil out as an investment property. Except even as an in-fill project, the developer still stuck it to the buyers with a hefty 0.6% mello roos based on the initial purchase price. Which means almost $300/month in mello roos payment.

Homes like this may still be iffy as an investment because remember, the extra $300 in mello roos means a loss of $50,000 in purchasing power. But if you are a renter looking to get into your own home, you might actually come out ahead if you have 20% down with a 5.5% 30 year fixed loan.

Similar entries
  • 4Closure Ranch is Not Immune

    4S Ranch is really not a bad place to be. It's got the good schools, it's got the parks and the trails, as well as the convenience of the recently completed Town Center.
    The initial master plan circa 2001-2003 was also quite decent. Some of the lot sizes were generous, the parks aplenty, and the sidewalks nice and wide. As for the mello roos? For a 3,000 sqft home at an asking price of roughly $500,000, the 0.5% mello roos only translate to roughly $2,500 per year.
    But then the builders got greedy, and by 2005 they also realized the bubble was about to burst. To fully take adventage of the inflated prices at the peak of the bubble, the builders shrunk the lot sizes, reduced the number of parks, and increased the mello roos to 0.7-0.8%. And therefore the same 3,000 sqft home, but with an asking price of $850,000, ends up with $6,400 of mello roos per year.
    But the mello roos is just a small part of this madness. Middle class folks, even upper-middle class folks, simply couldn't afford $850,000 for a tract home. It is that simple.
    Let's see how one owner who bought at the top is doing these days...

  • Flashback to that 'Home in Great Condition'

    Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.

  • 05/27-05/30 NODs in 92127


    Few of the interesting points here regarding these 11 homes:--2 out of 11 are listed for sale--11 out of 11 were purchased or constructed after 2003--11 out of 11 were refi'd, purchased or constructed after 2004--4 of 11 are from 4S Ranch proper--2 of 11 are from Santaluz
    11353 AVENIDA DE LOS LOBOS #E, SAN DIEGO 92127
    --1,230 sqft
    --11/04/2005: purchased for $390,000
    --05/30/2008: NOD
    --not listed or pending

    17081 W BERNARDO DR #102, SAN DIEGO 92127
    --1,040 sqft
    --09/27/2004: purchased for $362,990
    --11/21/2007: listed for $224,777-$249,777
    --05/30/2008: NOD

    16588 GETTYSBURG DR, SAN DIEGO 92127

  • Approaching 2002 in Otay Mesa

    Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

    As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

  • Falling Prices In Lake Forest


    Yes, this is in the more undesireable part of Lake Forest, the old El Toro to be exact. But price declines got to start somewhere...

    This neighborhood reached its peak $/sqft with this home back in May of '05:
    23235 Sky Dr., Lake Forest, CA 92630--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,255 sqft--05/2005: purchased for $705,000 ($313/sqft)

  • Mr. Smiling Liar Is At It Again


    Thank you to Rich Toscano of Piggington.com and the Voice of San Diego for keeping us up-to-date on the latest in Smiar-speak. I took the liberty of making some addition of my own to Rich's lovely Chuck Smiar Threat-O-Graph.

    So what if you were a scaredy-bear who bought in late 2006 just like good old Chucky would have liked you to?

  • If Only I Waited... In Yorba Linda

    Unfortunately for Jackie and Brayden of Placentia, their purchase prior to the effects of the credit crunch have rendered them over $100,000 in equity loss in just 4-5 months. But is it just Placentia alone?

    Today we travel a bit east to Yorba Linda to find out...

    20320 Herbshey Cir., Yorba Linda, CA 92887
    --4 beds, 3 baths, 2,256 sqft

  • A Brand New Day and a Brand New Blog

    One of our BMIT regulars golfer_x has been secretly working on his blog over the last couple of months. The Blog is Housing Kaboom and its main focus is the Inland Empire.

    Not that anyone would want to live there, but golfer_x managed to find today something in San Jacinto for less than $90/sqft. (As one of golfer_x's reader puts it, calling it a city is an insult to cities. But hey, the less-than-$100/sqft-club got to start somewhere!)

    665 Drake Dr, San Jacinto, CA 92582 (3,148 sqft)
    --04/2005: purchased for $339,500.

  • Update on Palomino in 4Closure Ranch

    Back in August of '07 BMIT featured a flipper flopping away in the Palomino neighborhood of 4Closure Ranch. After the purchase of the flip in February of '06 and holding on for a year, Cristina the Flopper® listed the home on the market in February of '07.

    15266 Winesprings Court, San Diego/4S Ranch, CA 92127 (4,136 sqft)

  • Price Showdown at Magnolia Estates

    Early in January BMIT showcased this 5,293 sqft Bressi Ranch mansion after we were tipped off to the shenanigan at this address. It turned out that even as the house was being auctioned off, its owner was still trying to rent it out at $6,500 a month with a $5,000 deposit.

    According to the property manager, looks like our friend Jose pulled a fast one on her by insisting that "he was waiting for the banks to remove the NOD." Well, the NOD is gone alright, for the property is now a REO.
    A few days ago Jim the Realtor alerted us to this property's listing on the MLS. So who's next in line to get shafted now? As it turns out, the builder is directly in the path of destruction.

  • Yes Virginia, There Are Places Worse Than Oxnard

    Our most recent 'If Only I Waited...' post on Oxnard prompted one irate anonymous reader to write, "What's up with slamming Oxnard? There are places to live that are in worse shape than Oxnard..."

    And we wholeheartedly agree!

    Case in point, Bakersfield. Here we have a REO going for 33% less today compared to a year and a half ago...

    12109 Trackside Dr., Bakersfield, CA 93312

  • The Lone Soldier

    Sales are down, foreclosures are up. If you have a home to sell, lower your price and get rid of it fast before you end up like this guy:


    400 Whitby Gln, Escondido, CA 92027
    --3 beds, 3.0 baths, 1,969 sq ft
    --05/2006: purchased for $473,000 ($240/sqft)
    --01/2008: listed for sale for $420,000 ($213/sqft)

    You might say... "What's the big deal, ocrenter? the guy is only losing 11%, we seen much bigger losses than that."

  • Those Who Fail To Learn From Own Bankruptcy...

    Everyone gets a second chance and JME is no different. Four years after a Chapter 7 BK filing, JME started back with his first home purchase in 2002. From then on, he made 4 additional purchases over the next 4-5 years. Two of which he sold for profit:

    12313 VIA HACIENDA, EL CAJON, CA 92019
    --3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,588 sq ft
    --12/2002: purchased for $350,000
    --07/2007: sold for $505,000

    2643 E BEYER BLVD, SAN YSIDRO, CA 92173
    --4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,532 sq ft
    --09/2006: purchased for $465,000
    --01/2007: sold for $510,000

    With sales from these two homes, JME was looking at a cool $200,000 in profit. So how did he show off this nice $200k? Why an over 5,000 sqft McMansion in StoneBridge Estate of course. Unfortunately, looks like JME stretched a little bit too far and here we are, all three remaining homes he own are now past due on property taxes.

  • Tracking Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures

    Using foreclosure.com as the source, foreclosure figures are listed first, pre-foreclosures are listed next, with the % of pre-foreclosures moving forward to foreclosures in parentheses. These are cumulative numbers. Special thanks to reader moqui for Aug '05 and June '06 data.

    San Diego County
    08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
    06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
    10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
    11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
    12/30/06: 1,251/4,637 (27.0%)
    01/30/07: 1,475/4,760 (31.0%)
    02/27/07: 1,879/5,008 (37.5%)

  • Steady Erosion in San Pasqual Valley

    The Ranchos at Vistamonte in San Pasqual Valley consist of 80 homes in a gated community surrounded by rocky hills with dry bushes. Whether it was luck or good planning, the recent firestorm charred the entire surrounding hillside but spared the entire community, including a few homes in construction with bare 2 by 4's.

  • Zen and the Art of Bubble Sitting

    There's so many different angles I can use on this one. But the one I'm going to have to use is simply this: be one with the market, don't fight the flow of the bursting.

    You know the market is bad, and it is going to get worse, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. So don't even try to buy right now, just don't do it... even if the place makes you feel at peace with its 'zen-like asian/contemporary interior design.' Just don't do it...

    977 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
    --4 beds, 5.0 baths, 3,884 sq ft
    --05/2005: purchased for $1.389 million ($358/sqft)

  • $622,500 Canyon View Premium in Scripps Ranch?


    12721 Westly Lane, San Deigo - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131--4 beds, 3 baths, 3,390 sqft on 6,000 sqft lot with view of canyons.--08/2004: first purchased from builder for $883,000--06/2007: purchased by current owner for $1.375 million

    12728 Westly Lane, San Diego - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131

  • Shhhh... Renters don't know it's for sale.

    1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
    --3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
    --08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
    --09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
    --10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

  • If Only I Waited... In Oxnard

    We learned over the weekend how dangerous it is to purchase at a time of pricing free fall. Certainly Mr. Vazquez's $30k to $55k loss just after closing on his home bring to light the events happening in the inner city zone of San Diego.

    But what about other inner-city-like areas in SoCal? Today, we journey to the other end of SoCal to Oxnard, where the boom caused a false spike of epic proportion. Here's the $/sqft on one Lombard Street in a newer part of Oxnard:Here's one example of the village idiot that bought at the very peak. Check out the almost $300k profit the original owner made between mid '03 to early '06. That's right folks, a 71% price spike in 2.5 years!

  • Magic On Triton Street

    Black Rail Ridge is a small in-fill project off Poinsettia in Carlsbad's 92011 (yes, the zipcode that held down the fort as per the Union Tribune just this past January). The development consists of eleven 3,400 sq ft homes on a single street, Triton Street. And just as 92011 is as special as zipcodes come, Triton Street is a street filled with magic and dreams come true.

    As an owner on this very very special street, the owner of 1598 Triton Street is currently trying to realize his own dream with the listing of his McMansion:

    1598 Triton St., Carlsbad, CA 92011
    --4 beds, 4.0 baths, 3,434 sq ft "model home"
    --10/2006: purchased for $975,000.
    --01/2008: entertaining offers between $1 million to $1.2 million.

  • Roll Back to 2003 In Village Park/Encinitas

    Bush and Paulson rushed out with a plan to freeze the ARM reset...
    Hillary is pushing for a moratorium on foreclosures...

    ...but none of them are addressing the main issue. The price gain over the last 6 years was un-natural. The price gain from 2001 to 2006 left millions of Americans unable to afford a home. And as the prices finally start rolling toward affordable range, these guys are trying to put a stop to it!

    Here's two homes in a development built circa early 1970 in Encinitas:

  • Keep, Rent, or Dump? Let's Learn From the Past

    The news out there just gets worse and worse. Nationally, we got the near-collapse of Bear Stearns. Regionally, there's a 39% freefall in sales and close to 20% drop in prices. Locally, we got skyrocketing foreclosures that are only getting worse. Needless to say, the bottom is a long way off.

    The easy answer for potential homesellers is: get out while you can, price it right and sell it off. But as Jim the Realtor's most recent post demonstrates, potential sellers out there continue to ponder the questions of: to keep, to rent, or to dump?

    To help these indecisive sellers make up their minds, BMIT went back to a post first written back in November of '06 and recently well covered by, once again, Jim the Realtor.

  • More NODs in 92009

    Much less REALTOR®-related NODs in eastern Carlsbad this week. Only 3 out of the 9 new NODs filed between December 6th to 12th are connected to REALTORS®.

  • Paseo Del Sold?

    Spelling mistakes on the MLS are not unusual, but this gives us a glimpse into the seller's desperation...43446 MONTE COURT, Temecula, CA 92592
    --4 beds, 3.0 baths, 3,036 sq ft
    --06/2003: purchased from builder for $378,500.
    --10/2006: sold to current sucker for $508,000.
    --10/10/2007: current sucker listed home for sale at $590,000.
    --10/20/2007: realized he was delusional and reduced to $410,000.

  • If Only I Waited... In Sunny Creek, Carlsbad


    BMIT first visited this master planned community in Carlsbad back in June of '06. At the time, the homes were still mostly in the mid-$600k, but already 6% off peak from 2005.
    Here's one home sold in August of '05:
    5566 Coyote Ct., Carlsbad, CA 92010 --3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,063 sq ft--08/2003: purchased from builder for $548,092.--08/2005: purchased at peak for $747,500. Now two and a half years later, the neighbor down the street is obliterating the neighborhood home value:

  • A Builder With a Sense of Humor

    We featured this street before, but April 1st seem like a good time to revisit how things are doing at Fools Gold Way.

    1279 Fools Gold Way UNIT 1, Chula Vista, CA 91913
    --2 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,071 sq ft
    --02/2005: purchased from builder for $400,000 ($373/sqft)
    --12/2007: back to bank as REO for $274,800
    --12/2007: listed as REO for $249,000, reduced to $221,000 ($206/sqft)

  • Back to Spring of '03 Pricing in O'Side

    4329 Vista Verde Way, Oceanside, CA 92057 --5 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,146 sq ft--03/2003: purchased from builder for $499,500--01/2008: REO to bank--03/2008: listed as REO for $499,900 ($159/sqft)

  • Update on Another Ivy Gate McFlop

  • If Only I Waited... In Costa Del Sol/Carmel Valley

    They say Carmel Valley is supposed to be immune. But BMIT says it is merely delayed.

    Here we have a new homeowner that thought immunity was theirs for keeps...

    13564 Lavender Way, SD - Carmel Valley, CA 92130
    --3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,615 sq ft
    --06/2007: sold for $670,000 ($415/sqft).

    Turns out immunity lasted just 5 short months...

  • Completely Hopeless In Santaluz

    There's a pervasive idea out in the community that the high end of the market is doing much better during this downturn. Unfortunately for the folks in Santaluz (Rancho Santa Fe adjacent master planned golf course community), there are quite a bit of sleepless nights these days.