Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 to 365,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 374,000 claims and “continued” claims went unchanged resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is wholly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that unequivocal clarity will more than likely come in the next few releases.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 11.86%, job “hires” declined 6.29%, and “separations” declined 4.82% led by a 10.81% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 8.85%, job “hires” declined 4.63%, and “separations” declined 0.38% led by a 5.47% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 22,000 to 378,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 356,000 claims and “continued” claims increased 32,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 9.67%, job “hires” declined 11.25%, and “separations” declined 6.60% led by a 8.51% drop in “quits”.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Reflecting both substantial benchmark revisions and ongoing weakness, today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating recessionary conditions and a decline to total non-farm payrolls of 62,000 from January and substantial downward revisions to the December 2007 and January 2008 results.

The report also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate and construction.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 19,000 and “continued” claims increased 21,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims increased 48,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing that seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 9,000 and “continued” claims declining 9,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

This week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 8.27%, job “hires” declined 9.80%, and “separations” declined 5.06% led by a 11.20% drop in job“quits”, the largest year-over-year decline to voluntary “quitting” activity seen since August 2003.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector is planning to curtail future hiring activity.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims decreased 22,000 and “continued” claims increasing 75,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increasing 69,000 and “continued” claims increasing 47,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 1,000 and “continued” claims declining 75,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.0%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read Joblessness showing “initial” unemployment claims declining 21,000 and “continued” claims increasing 66,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

Today’s Employment Situation Report again showed declining growth to employment with both the Household and Establishment data indicating anemic conditions with only a 19K increase to non-farm payrolls, a 436K worker decline in civilian labor force employment, a 474K increase to unemployed workers, 179K increase to workers now not in the labor force

While today’s Employment Situation Report showed growth to total non-farm payrolls it also disclosed continued and even peaking below trend growth overall and substantial declines in sectors directly related to residential real estate.

The following chart combines both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” into one payroll series and then plotting the data since 2002.

Building on Monday and Tuesday’s posts, let’s take a look at some data that might provide a basis for drawing a conclusion to the second question posed, namely:

2.) What might be the extent of job losses related to corporate restructuring in preparation for and as a result of a prolonged recession?