CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

They said it wouldn't happen, but it just did.

The decline in Sacramento home prices has surpassed the total decline of the 1990s housing bust. According to the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the December median home price fell to $280,000, a drop of 28.7% from its August 2005 peak of $392,750. That compares to a 24.1% drop between July 1990 and December 1996.

From the Sacramento Bee:

In the most ominous indicator yet of the capital region's struggling housing market, January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. January's 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties was only 33 more than the 1,782 foreclosures recorded in the same counties that month, according to statistics from La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla and Foreclosures.com. of Fair Oaks.
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CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.

Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.

There was a significant average price increase between August and September.

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for August for Victoria.

Highlights include
- 70.6% decrease in starts between August 2006 and August 2007.
- 2% decrease in starts year to date from 2006.
- 31.6% increase in units under construction between August 2006 and August 2007.
- Langford (pop. 22500) has 799 units under construction.
- Saanich (pop. 108000) has 536 units under construction.
- Oak Bay has 15 units under construction.

Those last three points aren't really highlights, I just found them to be interesting.

Today, the Commerce Department released their monthly Retail Sales Report for October which continued to show an interesting and, with some pretty significant revisions to past results, even more significant correlation between declining consumer spending, particularly on discretionary items, and the decline in home values.

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

From Reuters:

Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday...Punta Gorda, Florida, and Stockton, California, are the hardest hit markets in the U.S., with price declines from peak-to-trough forecast at 35.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively.
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These markets have been hard hit due to several reasons, namely the exiting of investors from the areas, a fair amount of subprime mortgage loans causing an increase in foreclosures and overbuilding by home builders, Zandi told Reuters.Moody's past predictions for Stockton home prices:

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.

Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.

CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.

If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?

I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.

Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.

I think I've heard that all before.

From Forbes: Worst U. S. Housing Markets

1. Sacramento, Calif.

Over-building and speculation helped the Sacramento housing market become one of the fastest gainers in the country during the housing boom. It's now in a near free-fall.From the Sacramento Bee: Think back now to mid-2004 when Sacramento County's median sales price for resale homes broke through the $300,000 barrier. It was a sensational moment. "Housing prices hit milestone," The Bee reported. The newspaper account said it took 13 years for prices to climb from $100,000 to $200,000 – and only two to "rocket" to $300,000.

It's September. Fall is coming, the kids are back in school, and housing inventory should start to increase as the number of sales continues decreasing.

There was a slight SFH inventory increase this past week. The biggest changes are 5 fewer homes priced between $300k and $400k and 7 more homes priced between $500k and $600k. As of today, 72% of all single family homes listed on MLS.ca have an asking price of $500000 or higher.

I know this isn't a Calgary or Alberta housing market blog, but I love watching the average sale price posted on CREB's website drop. Calgary's average sale price has gone from $491k on August 23 (the peak was around $507k) to $477.5k today. That's nearly $14k in 16 days! I wonder how many Albertans will be scurrying to purchase our properties as their bubble bursts!

From Bloomberg:The median price for a single-family home in the U.S. dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest decline in at least 29 years, as values tumbled in two-thirds of U.S. cities, the National Association of Realtors said...The biggest declines were in Sacramento, the capital of California, which had a 29 percent drop, followed by the metropolitan area around Riverside and San Bernardino, with a decline of 28 percent.From the NAR's October 2005 Sacramento "Anti-Bubble Report" (shockingly, the report is no longer available on nar.org!):With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is little danger of this. In fact, the local housing market is in excellent shape with a potential for significant housing equity gains, particularly for homebuyers who plan to remain in their house for the long run...Housing equity will most likely continue to accumulate to local homeowners.
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From the Modesto Bee:Northern San Joaquin Valley home prices have plummeted, but they haven't fallen enough to become affordable for most wage earners, a new study shows. Home buyers must earn about $98,000 a year to comfortably afford a median-priced house in Stanislaus County, the Center for Housing Policy reports. But workers in only one of the 64 occupations studied -- construction managers -- earned that much last year. Even two-income couples with good jobs -- such as accountants, police officers, school teachers and firefighters -- barely can cover ownership costs, the report showed.
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In calculating what's affordable, the study assumed not more than 28 percent of household income should pay the mortgage, property taxes and insurance. It also assumed buyers had a 10 percent down payment with a conventional loan.
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Home prices in the Sacramento region fell by the largest amount on record, according to a report [pdf] released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Sacramento's House Price Index (HPI) dropped 8.41% in the third quarter, the largest year-over-year decline since 1977, the year the government started tracking home appreciation for the Sacramento real estate market.

Top 5 year-over-year price declines since 1977:

2007 Q3: -8.41%
1983 Q3: -7.80%
1994 Q4: -6.67%
1995 Q1: -6.45%
1994 Q3: -6.24%

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again showing the truly dismal and deteriorating circumstances that have befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

Whether it was a slow depression brought on by a local economy that has been eroding for over eight years, well over two years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for untold wealth, the regions housing market has now crossed a dangerous tipping point.

From MarketWatch:U.S. home prices were falling in every region of the country in September, according to a closely watched index of home prices released Tuesday. Home prices fell in September in all 20 major cities covered by the Case-Shiller price index, even in cities that had been holding up before the August freeze in mortgage markets, Standard & Poor's reported.
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I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

In an effort to gain a little better perspective on the historic, current and more importantly future direction of inflation, I’m adding coverage of the monthly CPI data to the lineup of regularly occurring posts.

I’ll continue to develop the analysis adding other housing and economic related data in future posts but for now, let’s just get a sense of how well inflation is measured and read.

The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.

From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County's median sales prices slipped to $280,000 during the month, down more than $100,000 and 27.6 percent off their August 2005 peaks. Those prices were the lowest since February 2004, DataQuick reported.
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From the Sacramento Bee: A persistent housing slump that has relentlessly driven down home prices has now wiped out at least three years of home equity gains across much of the Sacramento region...For buyers, who have driven home sellers and much of the real estate industry mad by patiently remaining on the fence, it's fresh proof of a market getting ever more warm and friendly.

That's especially true in suburban neighborhoods with plenty of new construction. "I've got two sets of buyers looking at property in Lincoln, 2,943 square feet listed for $325,000," said Viki Benbow, a Coldwell Banker real estate agent. "It's like $106 or $107 a square foot. Those houses three years ago were selling in the mid-$500,000s."
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DataQuick estimated that 27.6 percent of the region's existing home sales in October involved foreclosure properties. It was 35.9 percent in Sacramento County.
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CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for April for Greater Victoria.

There are currently 4618 active property listings, approximately 550 more than 1 month ago.

It's been a while since I last posted charts based on data from the Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR). Here's a look at January's price and sales trends for single-family homes in Sacramento County and West Sacramento. Click the charts to enlarge. To compare to other price indexes, click here.

Sacramento's median home price declined an astounding 28.2% over a 12-month period, the sharpest drop on record. That compares to a 24.1% decline over the 6-year 1990s housing bust. January marked the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year percentage declines and the 6th month of double-digit declines.

The total decline since peak breached the 30% barrier for the first time, falling 35.1%.

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

Although I've read all my life and I've been reviewing books for a few years, I only got serious with my book blogging at the beginning of July. Until then I didn't record all the books I read so a good book may be missing although if I don't remember it at all, I guess it probably wasn't a five star book.

So of the books recorded here in 2007, I rated 25 books at 5 stars.

I started doing monthly reviews in July and these are the best books of each month:

July - The Everything Toddler Book by Linda Sonna Ph.D.
August - Magic or Madness by Justine Larbalestier
September - Marley and Me by John Grogan
October - Black Creek Crossing by John Saul
November - The Bookman's Wake by John Dunning
December - Tuesdays With Morrie by Mitch Albom

However not all of these made it to my top 10. So without furthur ado, here is my top 10 books that I read in 2007 (not necessarily published in 2007.)