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Realtor’s New Reality: Existing Home Sales Q3 2007

This week the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their existing home sales report for the third quarter of 2007 showing, in truly stark terms, the tremendously broad nature of the housing downturn.

Single family home sales, on a year-over-year basis, are now falling in every state except for Vermont and North Dakota (see chart below and click for larger version and note that NH and Idaho don’t report sales data) and even those states sales growth are anemic.

Amazingly, even given the obvious completeness of the housing downturn shown by their own data, the NAR’s newly appointed president, Richard Gaylord, blatantly continues the tradition of shameless self interested spin established by his predecessors.

“There is no such thing as a national housing market – it doesn’t perform like the equities markets, … What’s really important for consumers is to make informed decisions based on individual needs, desires and timelines in a given area. Most people plan to stay in a home for 10 years, and for buyers with a long-term view, housing is an excellent investment. … Even in most of the places that are undergoing a large price decline, long-term increases are quite respectable.”

As for median selling prices, the NAR’s data (see chart below) also shows widespread weakness among the statistical regions they track.

Given that the majority of price declines have just begun to show in 2007, look for this price chart to continue to deteriorate in coming quarters.

Also, keep in mind that the NAR data only includes sales for MLS listed properties and given this limitation, the S&P/Case-Shiller index for each respective major metro should be considered a far more accurate price reference.

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  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their existing home sales report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing, in truly stark terms, the tremendously broad nature of the housing downturn.

    Single family home sales, on a year-over-year basis, are now falling in every state except for Idaho and South Dakota and North Dakota (see chart below and click for larger version and note that NH doesn’t report sales data) with even those states sales growth being flat to anemic.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October again confirming, perfectly clearly, that demand for residential real estate, for both single family and condos, has now taken a new and substantial leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets likely as a direct result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes in the credit-mortgage markets.


  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finally released their Pending Home Sales Report for September 2007 showing yet again a truly stark and horrendous continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a weakening to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    As the decline in demand for residential housing slumps through its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 21.4% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

    Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.

  • Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November again confirming, perfectly clearly, that demand for residential real estate, both single family and condos, has taken a new and substantial leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets likely as a direct result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes that are taking place in the credit-mortgage markets

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January 2008 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

    As the decline in demand for residential housing enters its third year, it’s important to consider the significance of both the extent of the decline and the severity of the oncoming declines to existing home sales activity clearly indicated by the current 20% year-over-year drop-off in pending home sales.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for December again confirming, perfectly clearly, that demand for residential real estate, both single family and condos, has taken a new and substantial leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets likely as a direct result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes that are taking place in the credit-mortgage markets

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing yet again a truly stark continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January again confirming, perfectly clearly, the tremendous weakness in the demand of existing residential real estate with both single family homes and condos declining uniformly across the nation’s housing markets.

    Although this continued and even worsening falloff in demand is mostly as a result of the momentous and ongoing structural changes that are taking place in the credit-mortgage markets, consumer sentiment surveys are now indicating that consumers are materially feeling the current recessionary trend which will likely result in even further significant sales declines to come.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

    It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for December continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.

    Furthermore, the decline to the 10 city composite index declined a record 9.82% as compared to December 2006 far surpassing the all prior year-over-year decline records firmly placing the current decline in uncharted territory in terms of relative intensity.

    This report appears to continue to indicate that during the fall we essentially entered the serious price “free-fall” phase (look at the charts below) of the housing decline.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November 2007 showing a truly stark and even worsening continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and in every region.

  • Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that April single family home sales crashed 15.8% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed a stunning 26.6% over the same period.

    Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 8.7% on a year-over-year basis to $314,900 while condo median prices remained unchanged at $275,000.

    It’s also important to note that the April single family home sales count was the lowest April count on record since 1993 and at 2803 units sold was 30.72% below the record April peak set in April 2004.

    The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for September continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

    Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for November continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2007 showing accelerating weakness to existing home sales activity and a clear continuation of the historic decline to residential housing on a year-over-year basis, both nationally and across every region.

    Continuing down the second slope of the pullback in demand for residential housing, ALL regions are now tracking at or below the lowest values ever recorded with the Northeast now registering over 30% fewer sales than in 2001, the first year Pending Home Sales were tracked.

    As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun makes another attempt at self interested spin and false optimism suggesting that home sales have been moving in a “narrow range” and promoting the idea that higher conforming loan limits will thwart the decline.

  • UPDATE: NAR has finally published the September results read here.

    Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was scheduled to release their Pending Home Sales Report covering September 2007 but instead revised their release schedule going forward, combining the pending home sales results with their monthly housing forecast.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October 2007 showing again the utter foolishness of MAR president Doug Azarian’s purported two month long winning streak of increasing home sales earlier this fall.

  • Yesterday’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for October continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.

  • Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again showing the truly dismal and deteriorating circumstances that have befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

    Whether it was a slow depression brought on by a local economy that has been eroding for over eight years, well over two years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for untold wealth, the regions housing market has now crossed a dangerous tipping point.

  • First, to all U.K. readers I want to properly and whole heartedly welcome you the housing malaise!

    How’s that for an U.S. export! Take that you Redcoats!

    Recently, the two most prominent and long running monthly U.K. housing price indices registered the largest year-over-year declines in at least 15 years.

    The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through May indicated that U.K. home prices declined 4.4% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series, which reported data through April indicated that U.K. home prices declined 3.68% on a year-over-year basis.

  • Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for March continues to reflect the extraordinary weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now 19 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.

    Readers should take a moment to carefully reflect on the charts below as this level of price decline occurring simultaneously across the whole of the U.S. is not only unprecedented but is probably the purest expression of the fundamental collapse of wealth and well being for our nations typical home owning household.

  • This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

    I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

    The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

    Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

  • Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April again confirming, perfectly clearly, the tremendous weakness in the demand of existing residential real estate with both single family homes and condos declining uniformly across the nation’s housing markets while inventory swelled dramatically yielding a stunning 11.2 months of supply for all residential properties, 10.7 months for single family properties and a truly whopping 14.2 months for condos.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for October that continued to confirm the hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to July, August and September’s results.

  • Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing a further deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region as well as again reporting significant downward revisions to August, September and October’s results.

  • This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

    I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

  • This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

    I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

    The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

    Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.