The good news (from a buyer perspective): Homes are becoming more affordable as prices plummet. From the the Sacramento Bee: There's a flip side to the Sacramento-area housing downturn that has would-be buyers cheering: Sacramento is getting more affordable. Falling sales prices between last summer and the end of 2007 triggered a nice jump in affordability in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to an index compiled this week by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo & Co. 27.2 percent of homes sold in October, November and December were affordable to households earning the region's median income of $67,200.The bad news? Affordability is only back to 2004 levels: The new eligible buyer percentage for Sacramento was the best since 27.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004...[I]t doesn't take much to remember better days from 10 years ago. In the first quarter of 1998, 70 percent of area homes were affordable for people earning at least the median income, according to the home builders and Wells Fargo.The last time affordability was this low (aside from 2004) was in 1991, at the front-end of the 1990s housing bust. Between 1993 and 2000, the index remained above 50%.
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I wanted to thank you all for the numerous links, tips, and photos that I regularly receive. Although I don't always get the chance to respond, I do appreciate your contributions. Speaking of which, here's a photo sent in by reader LL. Thanks!
It's been a while since I last posted charts based on data from the Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR). Here's a look at January's price and sales trends for single-family homes in Sacramento County and West Sacramento. Click the charts to enlarge. To compare to other price indexes, click here.
Sacramento's median home price declined an astounding 28.2% over a 12-month period, the sharpest drop on record. That compares to a 24.1% decline over the 6-year 1990s housing bust. January marked the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year percentage declines and the 6th month of double-digit declines.
The total decline since peak breached the 30% barrier for the first time, falling 35.1%.
The decline in Sacramento home prices has surpassed the total decline of the 1990s housing bust. According to the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the December median home price fell to $280,000, a drop of 28.7% from its August 2005 peak of $392,750. That compares to a 24.1% drop between July 1990 and December 1996.
Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday...Punta Gorda, Florida, and Stockton, California, are the hardest hit markets in the U.S., with price declines from peak-to-trough forecast at 35.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively. ... These markets have been hard hit due to several reasons, namely the exiting of investors from the areas, a fair amount of subprime mortgage loans causing an increase in foreclosures and overbuilding by home builders, Zandi told Reuters.Moody's past predictions for Stockton home prices:
The release came along with some guarded outlook from Chief Economist David Seiders who is now suggests that more action on the part of legislators is needed to help bring recovery to the market.
Over-building and speculation helped the Sacramento housing market become one of the fastest gainers in the country during the housing boom. It's now in a near free-fall.From the Sacramento Bee: Think back now to mid-2004 when Sacramento County's median sales price for resale homes broke through the $300,000 barrier. It was a sensational moment. "Housing prices hit milestone," The Bee reported. The newspaper account said it took 13 years for prices to climb from $100,000 to $200,000 – and only two to "rocket" to $300,000.
From the San Diego Union Tribune (hat tip HBB):Steve Cochrane, senior managing director for Moodys.com and a specialist on California housing, said data indicate that a recession brought by the housing downturn has begun in the overbuilt Central Valley.From the Associated Press:Evoking Depression-era memories, Wells Fargo & Co. President John Stumpf on Thursday became the latest banker to predict continuing difficulties in the U.S. housing market as risky mortgages made to overextended borrowers disintegrate into large loan losses. Speaking at an investment conference in New York, Stumpf said the current real estate conditions are the worst he has experienced during his 30-year career.
HOPE: [California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie] Appleton-Young agreed that foreclosures will continue to rise. But she predicted foreclosure rates will not reach the high levels of the early 1980s or mid-1990s when slumping economies and job losses roiled the state. -Sonoma Press Democrat, Feb 2, 2007REALITY:
The Sacramento Real Estate blog reports that Sacramento County's price per square foot was $149.84 in April, a 33.9% drop from last year. That translates into a 41% decline in 31 months. Of note, this is the first resale home metric to cross the 40% off peak mark.
With regards to asking prices, Housing Tracker shows a median price decline of 28.9% year-over-year. The median has dropped 37.7% since August 2005.
From the Central Valley Business Times:Home values in the first quarter of 2008 fell 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter and 7.7 percent from the year-ago quarter, marking the most significant year-over-year decline in the past 12 years, Zillow says.
The release came along with some guarded, yet optimistic, outlook from Chief Economist David Seiders who has continues to look for an “upswing” in building activity in the second half of 2008.
From the Sacramento Bee:It would seem like one of the best locations to build a shopping center: Elk Grove Boulevard at Interstate 5, in one of Sacramento's fastest-growing suburbs. But retailers have been slow to flock to Stonelake Landing since it opened last March...[T]he Elk Grove center is 45 percent rented and has lost two tenants that had signed leases. ... The weakness in Sacramento's real estate market is no longer confined to housing. Commercial real estate is starting to soften – more so in retailing, less in the office and industrial markets. Projects are slower to lease up, and rents are coming down. Developers and lenders are becoming substantially more cautious about proceeding with new projects. ...
From the Sacramento Business Journal: The average price per square foot of homes sold in the Sacramento metropolitan area fell nearly 15 percent in a year, the biggest drop among 25 major national markets tracked by Radar Logic Inc., the New York-based real estate analyst reported Friday.The Sacramento real estate market has ended up in last place for three consecutive months, beating out markets such as San Diego, Las Vegas, and Tampa. Sacramento also claimed the bottom spot for condo price appreciation for the third month running, with prices plunging 21.5% compared with the prior year.
The price of a new home in Victoria rose 0.4% between August 2006 and August 2007. Of the cities surveyed, this was the third smallest increase. Windsor (-2.8%) and Charlottetown (0.2%) lead the way. Canada as a whole had an increase of 6.5%.
From Capitol Weekly (hat tip JC):As the real estate market softened in 2007, the new owner of a three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot house in Sacramento's Curtis Park neighborhood ran into trouble. The house that was purchased for $535,000 in January had lost equity. The owner fell behind in her payments, and eventually, the bank seized the home.
What makes this story different from the thousands like it is that the owner of this house was a member of Congress. The story of the foreclosure of Long Beach Democrat Laura Richardson's Sacramento home is a tale of a real estate market gone sour...While being elevated to Congress in a 2007 special election, Richardson apparently stopped making payments on her new Sacramento home, and eventually walked away from it, leaving nearly $600,000 in unpaid loans and fees. ... "It's kind of silly. You would think people who are making decisions for others would be able to make good decisions for themselves," she [the former owner] said. "She should have known what she could afford and not afford."Steepest price declines in the nation - check Home of the most hated flipper in the nation - check