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Sacramento Real Estate Prices: Cliff Diving

Some January price statistics for Sacramento County via the Sacramento Real Estate blog:

  • Median: -27.5% YoY
  • Average: -28.4% YoY
  • Price per square foot: -27% YoY

From the Stockton Record:

    A second major foreclosed-home auction will be coming to Stockton next week, with about 85 Stockton-area houses going up for sale at the San Joaquin County Fairgrounds.
    ...
    "The sellers are motivated, but they're not going to just dump the properties on the market," company spokesman Joe Joffrion said.
    ...
    Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Coldwell Banker Grupe, said the real estate community looks upon foreclosure auctions as a good way to help clear out some of the foreclosure properties that continue to dominate the sales market. About 70 percent of current sales are foreclosure properties, he said.Agent Bubble is reporting that 50% of Sacramento listings are either short sales or foreclosures. The Sacramento Real Estate blog says 67% of all sales in January fell into those two categories, compared to 7% a year ago.

    From the Wall Street Journal:
    Sales of large commercial buildings have dropped nationally, but the downswing in north-central New Jersey has been particularly chilly. In the fourth quarter, the region's overall sales of office, retail, warehouse and apartment properties valued at $5 million or more fell 75% from the year-earlier quarter to $811 million. The region tied with the metropolitan areas of Sacramento, Calif., and Kansas City, Mo., for the largest percentage drop of 50 major U.S. markets, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc., New York, a real-estate research firm.From the Modesto Bee:
    Knowing that Stanislaus County has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, I find it disturbing to read that Modesto planning commissioners voted 4-3 to approve the Tivoli project. I wonder if they are reading the same newspaper or watching the same TV reports on the housing market as I am. The proposal calls...[for] more than 1,300 new homes, 800 condos and duplexes, and 1,000 apartments.

    Granted, these proposed homes will not be completed for some time, as stated by the investors, but when hearing that the current market crisis is expected to last for at least another couple of years, I cannot help but ask: Who will buy all these new homes? Considering the market is not expected to bounce back for quite some time, I fear that just as we begin to see a light at the end of the tunnel and finally begin to clear a large inventory of existing homes, the emergence of so many new homes will cause us to backslide.From KCRA:
    The housing market may be in a freefall but that didn't stop Rocklin Voters from giving the green light to the [Clover Valley] development of more than 500 homes.

    Similar entries
    • From the Sacramento Bee: Every business day in the region an average of 85 people lost their homes to lenders, near double the number of foreclosures from June, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com, a Web site for real estate investors.
      ...
      "I don't think we are seeing the worst of these numbers," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Kleinhenz and others said they expect high foreclosure numbers to continue for at least another six months.DataQuick Stats by County
      DataQuick Stats by Zip

      From the Sacramento Bee: As foreclosures continue to grow in the capital-area real estate market, Sacramento and Elk Grove are copying a trend launched last year in Stockton: bus tours of bank-owned homes. As the buying season begins, three tours are planned for Feb. 23. There's one for investors in Sacramento and two for first-time buyers and investors in Elk Grove.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee: For new and existing homes combined: Sacramento County's October median sales price fell to $299,500. That's the first dip below $300,000 as the price slump continues and the lowest median price since April 2004. Sales prices have now fallen 22.6 percent from their August 2005 peak of $387,000, DataQuick reported.
      ...

    • From the Chicago Daily Herald: Kimball Hill Inc. today warned it might become the latest Chicago-area victim of the national housing crisis. The Rolling Meadows-based homebuilder said in a filing today it has "substantial doubts about whether we will be able to continue as a going concern."

    • From the Sacramento Bee: It's only one month's data, and it came from a winter month that's considered unreliable for trend spotting. But February sales of new and existing homes in Sacramento County -- the largest sector of the region's real estate market -- were just 7.7 percent fewer than in February 2007.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee: A persistent housing slump that has relentlessly driven down home prices has now wiped out at least three years of home equity gains across much of the Sacramento region...For buyers, who have driven home sellers and much of the real estate industry mad by patiently remaining on the fence, it's fresh proof of a market getting ever more warm and friendly.

      That's especially true in suburban neighborhoods with plenty of new construction. "I've got two sets of buyers looking at property in Lincoln, 2,943 square feet listed for $325,000," said Viki Benbow, a Coldwell Banker real estate agent. "It's like $106 or $107 a square foot. Those houses three years ago were selling in the mid-$500,000s."
      ...
      DataQuick estimated that 27.6 percent of the region's existing home sales in October involved foreclosure properties. It was 35.9 percent in Sacramento County.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee:
      When DataQuick Information Systems reported this week that Sacramento County posted its first gain in year-over year home sales in 37 months, these were the neighborhoods that made it happen: working-class areas in south Sacramento, North Highlands and North Sacramento, Elverta and Citrus Heights...What they have in common is an abundance of homes with falling values, heavily discounted bank-owned residences and scenes of multiple bids by investors and first-time buyers.
      ...
      During the third quarter of 2007, Meadowview's 95832 was one of California's most default-prone ZIP codes....April sales jumped 266 percent over the same month in 2007. The ZIP code's median sales price was $185,000, down 44 percent in just a year...[DataQuick's Andrew] LePage said 79 percent of the April sales in that ZIP code were homes lost to foreclosure during the past year.
      ...

    • From the Granite Bay PT: Michael Lyon, chief executive officer for Lyon Real Estate...told the audience the market has changed drastically. In 2001 about 800 homes were sold throughout Placer County in about a month. "Today there are about 2,460 homes for sale in Placer County and only about 219 are sold each month," he said.

    • From the Sacramento Business Journal:
      The average price per square foot of homes sold in the Sacramento metropolitan area fell nearly 15 percent in a year, the biggest drop among 25 major national markets tracked by Radar Logic Inc., the New York-based real estate analyst reported Friday.The Sacramento real estate market has ended up in last place for three consecutive months, beating out markets such as San Diego, Las Vegas, and Tampa. Sacramento also claimed the bottom spot for condo price appreciation for the third month running, with prices plunging 21.5% compared with the prior year.

    • From the Stockton Record: Home-sales auctions have popped in the Central Valley since last summer, but the latest twist is an online auction for new homes with a bidding process similar to that used by eBay.
      ...
      Some residents there aren't happy about the impending auction. Richard Provencio lives at the north end of Crescent Park Circle, a lane that has 14 of the 18 houses to be auctioned off - the remaining four are model homes a block south. "I feel very robbed," he said. "These are the same houses I paid $620,000 for, and now they could be selling for $300,000 to $400,000."...Recently, he counted 15 houses for sale down the long street from his house, and many sit empty because of foreclosure. "Our ghost town," he said. "It's just sad, man."

      Many of the homes in the development were bought initially by investors and then filled with renters, he said...The auction likely will draw only more investors, who then will put renters into the houses, he said.
      ...

    • From Time:The peach-colored house in a modest subdivision near downtown Modesto, Calif, used to be someone's dream home. But it stands out in a row of similarly hued homes where many have a "for sale" sign planted in their front yards. The two-story appears battered: its address has been scratched on a front panel and weeds choke what may once have been a manicured lawn. And then there is the overwhelming stench of human waste and stale beer. There has been no electricity and no running water since the bank repossessed it months ago. Still, at least three young men have been squatting here since January...Scratched in the entrance hall is a fitting salutation: "Welcome to Hell."...The dream home has become a nightmare.

    • From the Sacramento Bee:

      In the most ominous indicator yet of the capital region's struggling housing market, January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. January's 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties was only 33 more than the 1,782 foreclosures recorded in the same counties that month, according to statistics from La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla and Foreclosures.com. of Fair Oaks.
      ...

    • A look at Sacramento real estate market numbers for November:

      • Sacramento Real Estate Statistics Blog
      • Sacramento Real Estate Blog

    • From the Modesto Bee:Northern San Joaquin Valley home prices have plummeted, but they haven't fallen enough to become affordable for most wage earners, a new study shows. Home buyers must earn about $98,000 a year to comfortably afford a median-priced house in Stanislaus County, the Center for Housing Policy reports. But workers in only one of the 64 occupations studied -- construction managers -- earned that much last year. Even two-income couples with good jobs -- such as accountants, police officers, school teachers and firefighters -- barely can cover ownership costs, the report showed.
      ...
      In calculating what's affordable, the study assumed not more than 28 percent of household income should pay the mortgage, property taxes and insurance. It also assumed buyers had a 10 percent down payment with a conventional loan.
      ...

    • Home prices in the Sacramento region fell by the largest amount on record, according to a report [pdf] released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Sacramento's House Price Index (HPI) dropped 8.41% in the third quarter, the largest year-over-year decline since 1977, the year the government started tracking home appreciation for the Sacramento real estate market.

      Top 5 year-over-year price declines since 1977:

      2007 Q3: -8.41%
      1983 Q3: -7.80%
      1994 Q4: -6.67%
      1995 Q1: -6.45%
      1994 Q3: -6.24%

    • The Sacramento Real Estate blog reports that Sacramento County's price per square foot was $149.84 in April, a 33.9% drop from last year. That translates into a 41% decline in 31 months. Of note, this is the first resale home metric to cross the 40% off peak mark.

      With regards to asking prices, Housing Tracker shows a median price decline of 28.9% year-over-year. The median has dropped 37.7% since August 2005.

      More Sacramento real estate market figures for April at the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog.

      From the Central Valley Business Times:Home values in the first quarter of 2008 fell 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter and 7.7 percent from the year-ago quarter, marking the most significant year-over-year decline in the past 12 years, Zillow says.

    • From the New York Times:At the end of 2007, areas with the highest vacancy rates in housing intended for owner occupancy fell into two categories: Rust Belt areas like Detroit, Cleveland and Akron, Ohio, and former boom areas like Orlando and Tampa in Florida, and Las Vegas. Although home prices have fallen sharply in parts of California, only the Sacramento area shows high vacancy levels.

      High vacancy rates put renewed pressure on prices, of course, and also serve as a warning that the home building industry may have a long wait before it can regain volume.From the Modesto Bee:"The new home sales rate is nothing short of dismal," lamented Dean Wehrle, vice president of Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors. He said Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin county subdivisions are averaging one sale per month...Sales have been so slow throughout the three-county region that Hanley Wood said the inventory of approved lots is enough to last until 2012.
      ...

    • From Capitol Weekly (hat tip JC):As the real estate market softened in 2007, the new owner of a three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot house in Sacramento's Curtis Park neighborhood ran into trouble. The house that was purchased for $535,000 in January had lost equity. The owner fell behind in her payments, and eventually, the bank seized the home.

      What makes this story different from the thousands like it is that the owner of this house was a member of Congress. The story of the foreclosure of Long Beach Democrat Laura Richardson's Sacramento home is a tale of a real estate market gone sour...While being elevated to Congress in a 2007 special election, Richardson apparently stopped making payments on her new Sacramento home, and eventually walked away from it, leaving nearly $600,000 in unpaid loans and fees.
      ...
      "It's kind of silly. You would think people who are making decisions for others would be able to make good decisions for themselves," she [the former owner] said. "She should have known what she could afford and not afford."Steepest price declines in the nation - check
      Home of the most hated flipper in the nation - check

    • From the Sacramento Bee:In Sacramento County, sales of new and existing homes totaled 1,961 in April, the highest since Sept. 2006, according to DataQuick. The April sales tally was 26.3 percent higher than April 2007 -- the first time that year-over-year sales in the county have posted a gain since March 2005, DataQuick reported.
      ...
      Prices have rapidly dropped with heavily discounted, bank-owned homes accounting for a majority of purchases in the eight-county capital region. That means the lower end of the housing market is fueling much of the surge. Median sales prices -- where half the homes sell for more and half for less -- are down to Feb. 2003 levels in Sacramento County. The county's median sales price in April fell to $232,000 -- down 32 percent from a year ago [the steepest decline yet] and 40 percent off its Aug. 2005, high of $387,000.Jim Wasserman has the breakdown by county here [xls].

    • From the Wall Street Journal: Cities and counties with some of the worst fallout from the nation's housing slump also are seeing a sharp upswing in vacant homes, a trend economists say might set up further declines in home prices. The national homeowner vacancy rate, which gauges the number of vacant homes on the market, rose to 2.8% in the fourth quarter, according to Census Bureau data.
      ...
      Vacancies...jumped in some once-booming Western cities. Between 2005 and 2007, homeowner vacancies more than tripled to 3.8% from 1.2% in the Riverside-San Bernardino area, part of California's Inland Empire, east of Los Angeles. In the Sacramento area, vacancies jumped to 4.2% from 1.2%.Interactive Map - We beat Detroit!

      From the Modesto Bee: Monica Granados regularly encounters people who aren't even trying to fight foreclosure in San Joaquin County. Granados is a process server who delivers eviction notices to houses repossessed by lenders.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County, where median sales prices of new and existing homes combined are now 18.3 percent below this time last year, is still California's hardest-hit urban county for declining values.
      ...
      Sacramento County's median sales price for existing homes fell to $285,000 from $295,000 the previous month. That's down 24 percent from the August 2005 peak of $374,000 and lowest since $275,000 in April 2004.

    • From the Sacramento Bee: The NBA's longest active sellout streak officially ended at Arco Arena Tuesday with the Kings setting a home opener low for Arco, as well as recording the league's worst attendance for a home opener this season...The announced attendance of 14,908 ended the Kings' streak of 354 consecutive sellouts dating back to Nov. 26, 1999. Arco seats 17,317.
      ...
      "That's sad and embarrassing," said Brandon Castillo, a season-ticket holder and Sacramento political consultant. "I was shocked when I walked in. It was empty. I couldn't believe it."
      ...

    • From Bloomberg:

      Prices dropped in 54 of 150 metropolitan areas in the third quarter and the median sales price tumbled 2 percent nationwide, the National Association of Realtors said today.
      ...
      Palm Bay, Florida, had the biggest price decline in the third quarter, tumbling 12.4 percent from a year earlier. Sacramento, California, fell 10.5 percent and Sarasota, Florida, dropped 10.4 percent.NAR Report [xls]

      From the Central Valley Business Times:

    • From the Sacramento Bee:When times get tough, the tough ... take a sabbatical. That's the philosophy of developer Martin Tuttle, who is temporarily leaving his VP post with Sacramento builder New Faze Development.
      ...
      Tuttle says his wife's job offer came at the right time – just as the tough housing market forced New Faze to reduce its staff by about one-third, through layoffs and attrition.
      ...

    • Monterey Village Getting Shredded - photos & video at the Sacramento Real Statistics blog

    • From the Sacramento Bee: Banks repossessed nearly 5,300 homes in the capital region during the first three months of 2008, setting a record and pushing the region's foreclosure tally to more than 15,300 since the beginning of 2007....The number of home loan defaults also neared 10,000 during the quarter in Amador, Nevada, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems.

      Those defaults...hint at thousand more foreclosures in months to come. Altogether, the region has now seen about 34,000 home loan defaults since January 2007, according to DataQuick. From DQNews: Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties.
      ...
      Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 33.1 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 3.2 percent. Foreclosure resales vary significantly by area, from 5.1 percent in San Francisco County to 66.7 percent in San Joaquin County.
      ...

    • From the Stockton Record:The sales run for existing homes in San Joaquin County - mostly foreclosures [about 80%] - continued to pick up speed in April. But after a small median sales price jump in March, prices fell sharply in April, sliding below the $200,000 mark in Stockton [a drop of 43.0% YoY and hitting $240,000 in San Joaquin County, a decline of 36.8% YoY], according to figures from the latest Coldwell Banker Grupe-TrendGraphix monthly sales report, based on Multiple Listing Service data.
      ...
      Cameron Pannabecker, owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage Inc. in Stockton and a board director of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said he is urging caution about buying now as real estate agents and brokers tout the current market as a great time to buy.

    • From Bloomberg: Home prices fell in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas in March, led by Sacramento and San Diego, as rising foreclosures prolonged the housing recession. The price per square foot in Sacramento, California's capital, dropped 31 percent to $160 from a year earlier, according to a report released today by New York-based Radar Logic Inc., a real estate data company.From Housing Wire: Most key markets in California saw motivated sales comprise a growing portion of transaction volume, as well. In Oakland, distressed sales were 35 percent of the housing market in March, RadarLogic said; in Sacramento, that number soared to nearly 50 percent.From the Sacramento Bee: At the current sales pace, real estate experts say, it will take 13 years to develop and sell all the new homes planned in Yuba County and its neighbor, Sutter County. "That is horrifying. That's like seeing a mouse under the table," says Dean Wehrli, a Sacramento-based home-building industry consultant, addressing a home-builders meeting last week.

    • From the Sacramento Bee: Calling the bottom of a real estate cycle is more than difficult these days. It's perilous, an invitation for news sources who answer the question to be ripped by critics. There are so many points of view and so much passion. And there are so many who have offered false sightings in the past two years.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee: [T]here's no doubt the steep drop in home values – median prices in Sacramento County are almost 28 percent below last year's figures – and relatively low interest rates have sparked interest. [DataQuick's Andrew] LePage said investor buys accounted for 18.6 percent of February closings in Sacramento County. That's up significantly from 12.7 percent in November and December. [The high for investor buys was May 2004 when they accounted for 25 percent of sales.]
      ...
      Overall, sales remained weak, though real estate broker Tom Zipp of Citrus Heights said Thursday that rising investor activity "traditionally signals the bottom part of the market."DQ stats by county (All Homes & Existing SFH/Condos/New Homes)
      DQ stats by zip code

    • From the Sacramento Bee:Thelma Pugh of North Highlands came to rely on home equity as a cushion. She and her husband took out a $25,000 line of credit a year and a half ago from Countrywide Financial Corp. They've used about $9,000, mostly to pay for home repairs and – when her husband was hospitalized recently – to pay some bills. "It was like a lifeline," she said. "If I couldn't make ends meet, I had this."