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'Basically We're in Uncharted Territory'

From the Sacramento Bee: California's severe housing downturn claimed another fixture of the Sacramento-area homebuilding industry Wednesday when John D. Reynen, co-founder of Reynen & Bardis Communities, filed for personal bankruptcy protection...It's the second major bankruptcy-protection filing involving a privately owned land developer and builder in the capital region.
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The company, formed more than 30 years ago, has largely shut down homebuilding and recently laid off about half of its 180 employees.Press release available via Home Front.

From the Sacramento Bee:
During the first three months of the year, banks repossessed a record-shattering 5,278 homes in the Sacramento region, La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems said Tuesday. Put another way: The area's first-quarter foreclosures already are half of last year's entire total.
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The latest foreclosure count shows that for all the initiatives by government and nonprofit and private sectors to keep people in their houses, the telling trend remains a sustained, dramatic rise in home losses and loan defaults. The forecast is for more of the same in the months ahead.
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"We expect foreclosure rates in Sacramento to rise as long as house prices are declining," said Mark Fleming, chief economist of Santa Ana-based First American CoreLogic. Fleming said 6.1 percent of mortgages in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties are 90 days late. A year ago it was 2.1 percent.Here's a look at notice of default filings for Sacramento County.

2008 Q1: 6,898 (up 113.3% YoY)
1997 Q1: 2,441 (1990s Peak)

From the Appeal Democrat: Yuba County saw the highest total number of the three counties with 357 notices recorded, an increase of 136.4 percent...Colusa default notices quadrupled to 81. Sutter County defaults zoomed by 195.6 percent to reach 337 notices.

Kory Hamman, a broker who handles foreclosure sales for Hamman Real Estate, of Gridley, said the trend is toward more foreclosures. And it shows no signs of easing soon. "We're seeing more foreclosure activity, and we don't see it slowing down," said Hamman.From the Stockton Record: In San Joaquin County, lenders sent out 4,657 notices of default - the first step in the foreclosure process - to homeowners in January through March, up from 3,746 in the final three months of last year. That's a 170 percent first-quarter jump from 1,721 default notices in the first three months of 2007...[T]he number of homes actually repossessed during the first quarter in San Joaquin County nearly topped 2,500, more than a fivefold increase from 440 a year ago.
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Cameron Pannabecker, owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage Inc. in Stockton and a member of the board of directors of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said...he doesn't know any experts not projecting that the number of default notices will continue to double or triple last year's numbers quarter over quarter.From the Sacramento Bee: Like the hundreds of others in this Cal Expo exhibition hall, this young Yuba City couple were looking for a home at a bargain price for their three children at a two-day auction of foreclosed homes in Sacramento.

Some bargain hunters are like [Francisco] Cervantes, novices grasping at their chance for the house they've always wanted in a market they have been priced out of for years. Countless other shoppers are investors looking to one day realize a tidy profit in a capitalist economy that rewards good timing.
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Armand Sarcomo and his wife, Rachel, were eyeing a ranch-style home on five acres listed in the Yuba County community of Browns Valley..."We're looking for a second home," said the 28-year-old union sheet metal worker. "It's a good investment. We're a young family trying to move up and take advantage of the market."From the Modesto Bee: Home prices in most Northern San Joaquin Valley cities have dropped significantly more than those elsewhere in California. Newman has suffered one of the state's largest declines in home values: The median March sales price was $177,250, down nearly 54 percent from last year...Stanislaus County homes sold for a median $232,163 last month, which was 33.5 percent less than March 2007....San Joaquin County homes sold for a median $265,000 last month, which was 36.1 percent less than March 2007....From the Associated Press: An influential economist who long predicted the housing market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression....Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said.
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"Basically we're in uncharted territory," Shiller said. "It seems we have developed a speculative culture about housing that never existed on a national basis before."

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  • From the Sacramento Bee: Banks repossessed nearly 5,300 homes in the capital region during the first three months of 2008, setting a record and pushing the region's foreclosure tally to more than 15,300 since the beginning of 2007....The number of home loan defaults also neared 10,000 during the quarter in Amador, Nevada, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems.

    Those defaults...hint at thousand more foreclosures in months to come. Altogether, the region has now seen about 34,000 home loan defaults since January 2007, according to DataQuick. From DQNews: Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties.
    ...
    Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 33.1 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 3.2 percent. Foreclosure resales vary significantly by area, from 5.1 percent in San Francisco County to 66.7 percent in San Joaquin County.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: A persistent housing slump that has relentlessly driven down home prices has now wiped out at least three years of home equity gains across much of the Sacramento region...For buyers, who have driven home sellers and much of the real estate industry mad by patiently remaining on the fence, it's fresh proof of a market getting ever more warm and friendly.

    That's especially true in suburban neighborhoods with plenty of new construction. "I've got two sets of buyers looking at property in Lincoln, 2,943 square feet listed for $325,000," said Viki Benbow, a Coldwell Banker real estate agent. "It's like $106 or $107 a square foot. Those houses three years ago were selling in the mid-$500,000s."
    ...
    DataQuick estimated that 27.6 percent of the region's existing home sales in October involved foreclosure properties. It was 35.9 percent in Sacramento County.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee:

    In the most ominous indicator yet of the capital region's struggling housing market, January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. January's 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties was only 33 more than the 1,782 foreclosures recorded in the same counties that month, according to statistics from La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla and Foreclosures.com. of Fair Oaks.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: Every business day in the region an average of 85 people lost their homes to lenders, near double the number of foreclosures from June, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com, a Web site for real estate investors.
    ...
    "I don't think we are seeing the worst of these numbers," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Kleinhenz and others said they expect high foreclosure numbers to continue for at least another six months.DataQuick Stats by County
    DataQuick Stats by Zip

    From the Sacramento Bee: As foreclosures continue to grow in the capital-area real estate market, Sacramento and Elk Grove are copying a trend launched last year in Stockton: bus tours of bank-owned homes. As the buying season begins, three tours are planned for Feb. 23. There's one for investors in Sacramento and two for first-time buyers and investors in Elk Grove.
    ...

  • From the Granite Bay PT: Michael Lyon, chief executive officer for Lyon Real Estate...told the audience the market has changed drastically. In 2001 about 800 homes were sold throughout Placer County in about a month. "Today there are about 2,460 homes for sale in Placer County and only about 219 are sold each month," he said.

  • From the Sacramento Bee:In Sacramento County, sales of new and existing homes totaled 1,961 in April, the highest since Sept. 2006, according to DataQuick. The April sales tally was 26.3 percent higher than April 2007 -- the first time that year-over-year sales in the county have posted a gain since March 2005, DataQuick reported.
    ...
    Prices have rapidly dropped with heavily discounted, bank-owned homes accounting for a majority of purchases in the eight-county capital region. That means the lower end of the housing market is fueling much of the surge. Median sales prices -- where half the homes sell for more and half for less -- are down to Feb. 2003 levels in Sacramento County. The county's median sales price in April fell to $232,000 -- down 32 percent from a year ago [the steepest decline yet] and 40 percent off its Aug. 2005, high of $387,000.Jim Wasserman has the breakdown by county here [xls].

  • From the Sacramento Bee: It's only one month's data, and it came from a winter month that's considered unreliable for trend spotting. But February sales of new and existing homes in Sacramento County -- the largest sector of the region's real estate market -- were just 7.7 percent fewer than in February 2007.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County, where median sales prices of new and existing homes combined are now 18.3 percent below this time last year, is still California's hardest-hit urban county for declining values.
    ...
    Sacramento County's median sales price for existing homes fell to $285,000 from $295,000 the previous month. That's down 24 percent from the August 2005 peak of $374,000 and lowest since $275,000 in April 2004.

  • From the Sacramento Bee: For new and existing homes combined: Sacramento County's October median sales price fell to $299,500. That's the first dip below $300,000 as the price slump continues and the lowest median price since April 2004. Sales prices have now fallen 22.6 percent from their August 2005 peak of $387,000, DataQuick reported.
    ...

  • From Bloomberg:

    Prices dropped in 54 of 150 metropolitan areas in the third quarter and the median sales price tumbled 2 percent nationwide, the National Association of Realtors said today.
    ...
    Palm Bay, Florida, had the biggest price decline in the third quarter, tumbling 12.4 percent from a year earlier. Sacramento, California, fell 10.5 percent and Sarasota, Florida, dropped 10.4 percent.NAR Report [xls]

    From the Central Valley Business Times:

  • From the Sacramento Bee: [EDD labor market consultant David] Lyons said it was disturbing that the region has added just 6,600 jobs in the past year, a growth rate of just 0.7 percent. "We haven't been below 1 percent since 1993," he said. Unemployment has risen 1 percentage point in Sacramento in the past year. With housing still suffering and state government likely to slow down its hiring in the face of an estimated $14 billion budget deficit, the short-term outlook for Sacramento is spotty at best.From the Sacramento Business Journal: Year-over-year, construction fell by 7,200 jobs in the region, a 10.1 percent decline, while financial jobs declined by 3,100, off 4.7 percent. Those declines were steeper here than in the state as a whole.

  • Monterey Village Getting Shredded - photos & video at the Sacramento Real Statistics blog

  • From the Stockton Record: Home-sales auctions have popped in the Central Valley since last summer, but the latest twist is an online auction for new homes with a bidding process similar to that used by eBay.
    ...
    Some residents there aren't happy about the impending auction. Richard Provencio lives at the north end of Crescent Park Circle, a lane that has 14 of the 18 houses to be auctioned off - the remaining four are model homes a block south. "I feel very robbed," he said. "These are the same houses I paid $620,000 for, and now they could be selling for $300,000 to $400,000."...Recently, he counted 15 houses for sale down the long street from his house, and many sit empty because of foreclosure. "Our ghost town," he said. "It's just sad, man."

    Many of the homes in the development were bought initially by investors and then filled with renters, he said...The auction likely will draw only more investors, who then will put renters into the houses, he said.
    ...

  • From the Modesto Bee:Northern San Joaquin Valley home prices have plummeted, but they haven't fallen enough to become affordable for most wage earners, a new study shows. Home buyers must earn about $98,000 a year to comfortably afford a median-priced house in Stanislaus County, the Center for Housing Policy reports. But workers in only one of the 64 occupations studied -- construction managers -- earned that much last year. Even two-income couples with good jobs -- such as accountants, police officers, school teachers and firefighters -- barely can cover ownership costs, the report showed.
    ...
    In calculating what's affordable, the study assumed not more than 28 percent of household income should pay the mortgage, property taxes and insurance. It also assumed buyers had a 10 percent down payment with a conventional loan.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: Billboards featuring the bemused face of star architect Daniel Libeskind have disappeared from downtown street corners, and so have plans by Denver developer Craig Nassi to build two Libeskind buildings here. First, Nassi's Aura condominium project on the Capitol Mall ran into trouble. Now the head of BCN Development says he can't find financing for the 50-story Epic condo and hotel tower he planned for 12th and I streets, either.

  • From the Sacramento Bee:[W]ith 12,000-plus "For Sale" signs in the region, the market hasn't yet reached bottom, said ReMax's [Randy] Dunham. At month's end there were 12,606 homes for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to Sacramento-based researcher TrendGraphix. The peak in August 2007 was 16,262.
    ...
    "Borrowers are more cautious about what they can afford," said Michele Dillingham, a senior loan consultant at Sacramento-based Vitek Mortgage. "A lot of people are buying at below what they would qualify for. They saw what happened (with foreclosures) and don't want it to happen to them."DataQuick stats by county
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    From Home Front: Is this sustainable?

  • From the Sacramento Bee:When times get tough, the tough ... take a sabbatical. That's the philosophy of developer Martin Tuttle, who is temporarily leaving his VP post with Sacramento builder New Faze Development.
    ...
    Tuttle says his wife's job offer came at the right time – just as the tough housing market forced New Faze to reduce its staff by about one-third, through layoffs and attrition.
    ...

  • From the Central Valley Business Times: Five of the top ten [California] counties for foreclosures last month were in the Central Valley, led by San Joaquin County with 1,000 homes going on the auction block, a 700 percent increase over the number a year earlier. Stanislaus County is ranked third in the state on a per capita basis with Sacramento County fourth, Yolo County fifth and Merced County seventh, according to the computations by ForeclosureRadar.From the Central Valley Business Times: The Stockton metro area in the Central Valley had the nation’s second-highest home foreclosure rate last year among the nation's 100 largest metro areas, says a new report from RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, a foreclosure information company. With 4.866 percent of its households entering some stage of foreclosure during the year, Stockton saw a total of 22,184 foreclosure filings on 10,608 properties, up 271 percent from 2006, RealtyTrac says.
    ...

  • From the Chicago Daily Herald: Kimball Hill Inc. today warned it might become the latest Chicago-area victim of the national housing crisis. The Rolling Meadows-based homebuilder said in a filing today it has "substantial doubts about whether we will be able to continue as a going concern."

  • Some January price statistics for Sacramento County via the Sacramento Real Estate blog:

    • Median: -27.5% YoY
    • Average: -28.4% YoY
    • Price per square foot: -27% YoY

    From the Stockton Record:

      A second major foreclosed-home auction will be coming to Stockton next week, with about 85 Stockton-area houses going up for sale at the San Joaquin County Fairgrounds.
      ...
      "The sellers are motivated, but they're not going to just dump the properties on the market," company spokesman Joe Joffrion said.
      ...

    • From Capitol Weekly (hat tip JC):As the real estate market softened in 2007, the new owner of a three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot house in Sacramento's Curtis Park neighborhood ran into trouble. The house that was purchased for $535,000 in January had lost equity. The owner fell behind in her payments, and eventually, the bank seized the home.

      What makes this story different from the thousands like it is that the owner of this house was a member of Congress. The story of the foreclosure of Long Beach Democrat Laura Richardson's Sacramento home is a tale of a real estate market gone sour...While being elevated to Congress in a 2007 special election, Richardson apparently stopped making payments on her new Sacramento home, and eventually walked away from it, leaving nearly $600,000 in unpaid loans and fees.
      ...
      "It's kind of silly. You would think people who are making decisions for others would be able to make good decisions for themselves," she [the former owner] said. "She should have known what she could afford and not afford."Steepest price declines in the nation - check
      Home of the most hated flipper in the nation - check

    • From the Wall Street Journal: Cities and counties with some of the worst fallout from the nation's housing slump also are seeing a sharp upswing in vacant homes, a trend economists say might set up further declines in home prices. The national homeowner vacancy rate, which gauges the number of vacant homes on the market, rose to 2.8% in the fourth quarter, according to Census Bureau data.
      ...
      Vacancies...jumped in some once-booming Western cities. Between 2005 and 2007, homeowner vacancies more than tripled to 3.8% from 1.2% in the Riverside-San Bernardino area, part of California's Inland Empire, east of Los Angeles. In the Sacramento area, vacancies jumped to 4.2% from 1.2%.Interactive Map - We beat Detroit!

      From the Modesto Bee: Monica Granados regularly encounters people who aren't even trying to fight foreclosure in San Joaquin County. Granados is a process server who delivers eviction notices to houses repossessed by lenders.
      ...

    • From DQNews:The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than fifteen years, a real estate information service reported. Lending institutions sent homeowners 81,550 default notices during the October-to-December period. That was up by 12.4 percent from 72,571 the previous quarter, and up 114.6 percent from 37,994 for fourth-quarter 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992...Last quarter's default numbers were a record in 42 of the state's 58 counties.
      ...

    • HOPE: [California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie] Appleton-Young agreed that foreclosures will continue to rise. But she predicted foreclosure rates will not reach the high levels of the early 1980s or mid-1990s when slumping economies and job losses roiled the state.
      -Sonoma Press Democrat, Feb 2, 2007 REALITY:

    • From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County's median sales prices slipped to $280,000 during the month, down more than $100,000 and 27.6 percent off their August 2005 peaks. Those prices were the lowest since February 2004, DataQuick reported.
      ...

    • [Update: added graphs]

      Housing Tracker, median asking price: $300,000

      Change from last year: -18.8% [-$69,500]

      Change from Aug '05: -25.0% [-$99,900]

    • From the Lodi News-Sentinel:The housing boom was good for Ben Juarez, like so many other Lodi residents. It meant steady work and extra cash from overtime jobs, installing air conditioners and gutters at tract homes across the region.
      ...
      Now, with the housing bust, life is full of worry for Juarez — who's been jobless since November — and for thousands like him in the area. The EDD estimates that Lodi's jobless rate reached 7.3 percent in December, the latest figures available. That's up from 5.5 percent in December 2006 and 5.6 percent in December 2005....It adds to up to more than 1,000 extra residents without work compared to the past couple years. Because of the epic housing meltdown, many of those unemployed are local carpenters, plumbers, landscapers, real estate and finance workers.

    • From the Stockton Record:The sales run for existing homes in San Joaquin County - mostly foreclosures [about 80%] - continued to pick up speed in April. But after a small median sales price jump in March, prices fell sharply in April, sliding below the $200,000 mark in Stockton [a drop of 43.0% YoY and hitting $240,000 in San Joaquin County, a decline of 36.8% YoY], according to figures from the latest Coldwell Banker Grupe-TrendGraphix monthly sales report, based on Multiple Listing Service data.
      ...
      Cameron Pannabecker, owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage Inc. in Stockton and a board director of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said he is urging caution about buying now as real estate agents and brokers tout the current market as a great time to buy.

    • The Sacramento Real Estate blog reports that Sacramento County's price per square foot was $149.84 in April, a 33.9% drop from last year. That translates into a 41% decline in 31 months. Of note, this is the first resale home metric to cross the 40% off peak mark.

      With regards to asking prices, Housing Tracker shows a median price decline of 28.9% year-over-year. The median has dropped 37.7% since August 2005.

      More Sacramento real estate market figures for April at the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog.

      From the Central Valley Business Times:Home values in the first quarter of 2008 fell 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter and 7.7 percent from the year-ago quarter, marking the most significant year-over-year decline in the past 12 years, Zillow says.

    • From Bloomberg:The median price for a single-family home in the U.S. dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest decline in at least 29 years, as values tumbled in two-thirds of U.S. cities, the National Association of Realtors said...The biggest declines were in Sacramento, the capital of California, which had a 29 percent drop, followed by the metropolitan area around Riverside and San Bernardino, with a decline of 28 percent.From the NAR's October 2005 Sacramento "Anti-Bubble Report" (shockingly, the report is no longer available on nar.org!):With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is little danger of this. In fact, the local housing market is in excellent shape with a potential for significant housing equity gains, particularly for homebuyers who plan to remain in their house for the long run...Housing equity will most likely continue to accumulate to local homeowners.
      ...