A month ago Jim the Realtor reminded us of the backlog of REOs using the Deutsche Bank as an example. In his survey back in December of '07, Jim found the following:

Here is the survey of 123 Deutsche REOs in North County:
--64 active listings
--18 pending listings
--41 homes not on market yet (33%)

Jim reported at the time that his foreclosing neighbor at the time was still living rent free 4 months after their foreclosure. Which reminds us of this gem in 4Closure Ranch...

One of our BMIT regulars golfer_x has been secretly working on his blog over the last couple of months. The Blog is Housing Kaboom and its main focus is the Inland Empire.

Not that anyone would want to live there, but golfer_x managed to find today something in San Jacinto for less than $90/sqft. (As one of golfer_x's reader puts it, calling it a city is an insult to cities. But hey, the less-than-$100/sqft-club got to start somewhere!)

665 Drake Dr, San Jacinto, CA 92582 (3,148 sqft)
--04/2005: purchased for $339,500.

Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.

In addition to the profiling of our real estate friends foreclosing away, the U-T story this past weekend also had some pretty scary numbers. For example, there were 1,305 actual foreclosures in January, this was up 257% in comparison to a year ago. With only 1,826 homes sold, the number of foreclosures in the county may soon overtake home sales.

What is even scarier is what's not published. These foreclosure numbers are actually lower than expected because of the 'postponement phenomenon.'

On Friday last week we found out that up to 10 units owned by the same family in Downtown San Diego are in danger of foreclosure. The family is headed by Juan Ignacio, a Garden Grove REALTOR® and family members Gerardo and Nestor.

As it turns out, the 10 units in Downtown SD were all purchased in late 2006 to 2007, with a purchase value of $8.01 million. There was also a purchase in Encinitas on 334 Via Andalusia for $995,000. So how did three guys purchase $9 million worth of properties in such short amount of time? Well, according to our BMIT reader Lt. Colombo, most of these purchases were, of course, zero down, 100% financed gems.

So does the story ends here? Why of course not...

You would think folks would have learned by now...

This home has quite a history here on BMIT. This is one of the homes that inspired the RSF Triumvirate to greatness as they made a cool half a million dollar on this one back in April of '06. It was also featured here in May of '07 as a fine example of an early payment default. The home at the time was listed by the bank as a REO with the lender taking a $332,000 loss within a single year.

After half a year as a REO, looks like an aspiring foreclosure shark decided to take the bait and went for it:

14444 Rock Rose, San Diego, CA 92127 (3,531 sqft)
--03/2003: purchased by the RSF Triumvirate for $849,000.

4S Ranch is really not a bad place to be. It's got the good schools, it's got the parks and the trails, as well as the convenience of the recently completed Town Center.
The initial master plan circa 2001-2003 was also quite decent. Some of the lot sizes were generous, the parks aplenty, and the sidewalks nice and wide. As for the mello roos? For a 3,000 sqft home at an asking price of roughly $500,000, the 0.5% mello roos only translate to roughly $2,500 per year.
But then the builders got greedy, and by 2005 they also realized the bubble was about to burst. To fully take adventage of the inflated prices at the peak of the bubble, the builders shrunk the lot sizes, reduced the number of parks, and increased the mello roos to 0.7-0.8%. And therefore the same 3,000 sqft home, but with an asking price of $850,000, ends up with $6,400 of mello roos per year.
But the mello roos is just a small part of this madness. Middle class folks, even upper-middle class folks, simply couldn't afford $850,000 for a tract home. It is that simple.
Let's see how one owner who bought at the top is doing these days...

1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
--3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
--08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
--09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
--10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

There's so many different angles I can use on this one. But the one I'm going to have to use is simply this: be one with the market, don't fight the flow of the bursting.

You know the market is bad, and it is going to get worse, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. So don't even try to buy right now, just don't do it... even if the place makes you feel at peace with its 'zen-like asian/contemporary interior design.' Just don't do it...

977 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
--4 beds, 5.0 baths, 3,884 sq ft
--05/2005: purchased for $1.389 million ($358/sqft)

Yes, this is in the more undesireable part of Lake Forest, the old El Toro to be exact. But price declines got to start somewhere...

This neighborhood reached its peak $/sqft with this home back in May of '05:
23235 Sky Dr., Lake Forest, CA 92630--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,255 sqft--05/2005: purchased for $705,000 ($313/sqft)

12721 Westly Lane, San Deigo - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131--4 beds, 3 baths, 3,390 sqft on 6,000 sqft lot with view of canyons.--08/2004: first purchased from builder for $883,000--06/2007: purchased by current owner for $1.375 million

12728 Westly Lane, San Diego - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131

Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:131

01/2007: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/2007: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/2007: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/2007: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)
05/2007: 21,169 (3,385)___05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)

Out of Jim the Realtor's April Actives vs Pendings zipcode comparisons, Rancho Penasquitos is the best out of all of the zip codes with a strong Active vs. Pending ratio 1.80. Sure enough, out of a population of 47,217, there's only 173 listings, translating to a listing per population ratio of 1:273, in stark contrast to 92127's 1:69.

But what about that Phantom/Shadow/Stealth Inventory? Here's Watson Ranch, a smallish development built in late 2002 and 2003 just north of Route 56, we got a single home for sale on Torrey Bella Court:
13878 Torrey Bella, San Diego, CA 92129

Just a week ago BMIT featured the Ongs foreclosing away at 7383 Los Brazos in the gated community of Santa Monica in Santaluz.

As misery loves company, it turns out a REALTOR® neighbor across the street just received her NOD as well.

7378 Los Brazos, San Diego, CA 92127
--3 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,677 sq ft
--12/2003: purchased from builder at $823,500.
--07/2005: refi'd for $995,000.
--01/28/2008: NOD filed by Countrywide.

Early in January BMIT showcased this 5,293 sqft Bressi Ranch mansion after we were tipped off to the shenanigan at this address. It turned out that even as the house was being auctioned off, its owner was still trying to rent it out at $6,500 a month with a $5,000 deposit.

According to the property manager, looks like our friend Jose pulled a fast one on her by insisting that "he was waiting for the banks to remove the NOD." Well, the NOD is gone alright, for the property is now a REO.
A few days ago Jim the Realtor alerted us to this property's listing on the MLS. So who's next in line to get shafted now? As it turns out, the builder is directly in the path of destruction.

There are a total of 9 NODs filed in the zipcode of 92009 in eastern Carlsbad in the first week of December.

6 of these NODs went to REALTORS®:

Everyone gets a second chance and JME is no different. Four years after a Chapter 7 BK filing, JME started back with his first home purchase in 2002. From then on, he made 4 additional purchases over the next 4-5 years. Two of which he sold for profit:

12313 VIA HACIENDA, EL CAJON, CA 92019
--3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,588 sq ft
--12/2002: purchased for $350,000
--07/2007: sold for $505,000

2643 E BEYER BLVD, SAN YSIDRO, CA 92173
--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,532 sq ft
--09/2006: purchased for $465,000
--01/2007: sold for $510,000

With sales from these two homes, JME was looking at a cool $200,000 in profit. So how did he show off this nice $200k? Why an over 5,000 sqft McMansion in StoneBridge Estate of course. Unfortunately, looks like JME stretched a little bit too far and here we are, all three remaining homes he own are now past due on property taxes.

Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131

01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)

Much less REALTOR®-related NODs in eastern Carlsbad this week. Only 3 out of the 9 new NODs filed between December 6th to 12th are connected to REALTORS®.

The Ranchos at Vistamonte in San Pasqual Valley consist of 80 homes in a gated community surrounded by rocky hills with dry bushes. Whether it was luck or good planning, the recent firestorm charred the entire surrounding hillside but spared the entire community, including a few homes in construction with bare 2 by 4's.

With 10 units in downtown San Diego, 3 units and 4 homes in Long Beach, and another home in Encinitas, how many more tenants are affected by Juan et al.'s current real estate collapse?

4329 Vista Verde Way, Oceanside, CA 92057 --5 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,146 sq ft--03/2003: purchased from builder for $499,500--01/2008: REO to bank--03/2008: listed as REO for $499,900 ($159/sqft)

Back in August of '07 BMIT featured a flipper flopping away in the Palomino neighborhood of 4Closure Ranch. After the purchase of the flip in February of '06 and holding on for a year, Cristina the Flopper® listed the home on the market in February of '07.

15266 Winesprings Court, San Diego/4S Ranch, CA 92127 (4,136 sqft)

According to SDLookup, Rancho Bernardo 92128 currently has 310 listings for sale. For a population of 42,728, that gets us a listing per population ratio of 1:138. Should this ratio be lower? Is 92128 also suffering from the phantom inventory phenomenon?

12047 ALTA CARMEL CT #187 SAN DIEGO 92128--5/14: NOD filed--not listed on MLS

Sales are down, foreclosures are up. If you have a home to sell, lower your price and get rid of it fast before you end up like this guy:

400 Whitby Gln, Escondido, CA 92027
--3 beds, 3.0 baths, 1,969 sq ft
--05/2006: purchased for $473,000 ($240/sqft)
--01/2008: listed for sale for $420,000 ($213/sqft)

You might say... "What's the big deal, ocrenter? the guy is only losing 11%, we seen much bigger losses than that."

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:422
7/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:176

01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)____01/2005: (2,903)
02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)___02/2005: (2,890)
03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)___03/2005: (5,033)
04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)___04/2005: (4,547)
05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)___05/2005: (4,548)
06/2006: 16,692 (3,862)___06/2005: (4,898)