Over the last two weeks we counted 9 REALTORS® in Carlsbad's 92009 getting their NODs in the mail. This is out of 18 NODs filed in the zipcode, or 50% of the total NODs.

Going along the same theme, this week we head down to the bubble-proof La Jolla, where we find over the last 2 weeks a total NOD filing of only 6 homes, but once again, 50% of which belonging to REALTORS®.

Here are the three defaulting REALTORS®. Looks like two of them withdrew a little too much from their housing ATM, while one couple ran out of cash mid way through the building of their dream La Jolla flip.

Using foreclosure.com as the source, foreclosure figures are listed first, pre-foreclosures are listed next, with the % of pre-foreclosures moving forward to foreclosures in parentheses. These are cumulative numbers. Special thanks to reader moqui for Aug '05 and June '06 data.

San Diego County
08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
12/30/06: 1,251/4,637 (27.0%)
01/30/07: 1,475/4,760 (31.0%)
02/27/07: 1,879/5,008 (37.5%)

Early in January BMIT showcased this 5,293 sqft Bressi Ranch mansion after we were tipped off to the shenanigan at this address. It turned out that even as the house was being auctioned off, its owner was still trying to rent it out at $6,500 a month with a $5,000 deposit.

According to the property manager, looks like our friend Jose pulled a fast one on her by insisting that "he was waiting for the banks to remove the NOD." Well, the NOD is gone alright, for the property is now a REO.
A few days ago Jim the Realtor alerted us to this property's listing on the MLS. So who's next in line to get shafted now? As it turns out, the builder is directly in the path of destruction.

A month ago Jim the Realtor reminded us of the backlog of REOs using the Deutsche Bank as an example. In his survey back in December of '07, Jim found the following:

Here is the survey of 123 Deutsche REOs in North County:
--64 active listings
--18 pending listings
--41 homes not on market yet (33%)

Jim reported at the time that his foreclosing neighbor at the time was still living rent free 4 months after their foreclosure. Which reminds us of this gem in 4Closure Ranch...

Few of the interesting points here regarding these 11 homes:--2 out of 11 are listed for sale--11 out of 11 were purchased or constructed after 2003--11 out of 11 were refi'd, purchased or constructed after 2004--4 of 11 are from 4S Ranch proper--2 of 11 are from Santaluz
11353 AVENIDA DE LOS LOBOS #E, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,230 sqft
--11/04/2005: purchased for $390,000
--05/30/2008: NOD
--not listed or pending

17081 W BERNARDO DR #102, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,040 sqft
--09/27/2004: purchased for $362,990
--11/21/2007: listed for $224,777-$249,777
--05/30/2008: NOD

16588 GETTYSBURG DR, SAN DIEGO 92127

In addition to the profiling of our real estate friends foreclosing away, the U-T story this past weekend also had some pretty scary numbers. For example, there were 1,305 actual foreclosures in January, this was up 257% in comparison to a year ago. With only 1,826 homes sold, the number of foreclosures in the county may soon overtake home sales.

What is even scarier is what's not published. These foreclosure numbers are actually lower than expected because of the 'postponement phenomenon.'

You are a flipper. You dream of that ultimate flip. In July of '06 you find yourself presented with an opportunity to purchase a grand 5,293 sqft gigantic mega flip of a house from Barratt American's Magnolia Estate in Bressi Ranch, Carlsbad.

Armed with a loan from WaMu for $1.556 million (unknown if there's a second), you signed that sales contract for $1.945 million.

All you could think about when you signed that thing was perhaps a quick flip for $3 million, maybe $2.5 million if the market is down a bit. Who knew the market would tank so much... who knew the carrying cost would cost so much...

Faced with a mortgage payment on an almost $2 million house. You do the most logical thing you can possibly do. You stop payment and let the foreclosure process begin.

BMIT first visited this master planned community in Carlsbad back in June of '06. At the time, the homes were still mostly in the mid-$600k, but already 6% off peak from 2005.
Here's one home sold in August of '05:
5566 Coyote Ct., Carlsbad, CA 92010 --3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,063 sq ft--08/2003: purchased from builder for $548,092.--08/2005: purchased at peak for $747,500. Now two and a half years later, the neighbor down the street is obliterating the neighborhood home value:

There's so many different angles I can use on this one. But the one I'm going to have to use is simply this: be one with the market, don't fight the flow of the bursting.

You know the market is bad, and it is going to get worse, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. So don't even try to buy right now, just don't do it... even if the place makes you feel at peace with its 'zen-like asian/contemporary interior design.' Just don't do it...

977 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
--4 beds, 5.0 baths, 3,884 sq ft
--05/2005: purchased for $1.389 million ($358/sqft)

Just a week ago BMIT featured the Ongs foreclosing away at 7383 Los Brazos in the gated community of Santa Monica in Santaluz.

As misery loves company, it turns out a REALTOR® neighbor across the street just received her NOD as well.

7378 Los Brazos, San Diego, CA 92127
--3 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,677 sq ft
--12/2003: purchased from builder at $823,500.
--07/2005: refi'd for $995,000.
--01/28/2008: NOD filed by Countrywide.

1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
--3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
--08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
--09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
--10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

On Friday last week we found out that up to 10 units owned by the same family in Downtown San Diego are in danger of foreclosure. The family is headed by Juan Ignacio, a Garden Grove REALTOR® and family members Gerardo and Nestor.

As it turns out, the 10 units in Downtown SD were all purchased in late 2006 to 2007, with a purchase value of $8.01 million. There was also a purchase in Encinitas on 334 Via Andalusia for $995,000. So how did three guys purchase $9 million worth of properties in such short amount of time? Well, according to our BMIT reader Lt. Colombo, most of these purchases were, of course, zero down, 100% financed gems.

So does the story ends here? Why of course not...

Back in August of '07 BMIT featured a flipper flopping away in the Palomino neighborhood of 4Closure Ranch. After the purchase of the flip in February of '06 and holding on for a year, Cristina the Flopper® listed the home on the market in February of '07.

15266 Winesprings Court, San Diego/4S Ranch, CA 92127 (4,136 sqft)

Black Rail Ridge is a small in-fill project off Poinsettia in Carlsbad's 92011 (yes, the zipcode that held down the fort as per the Union Tribune just this past January). The development consists of eleven 3,400 sq ft homes on a single street, Triton Street. And just as 92011 is as special as zipcodes come, Triton Street is a street filled with magic and dreams come true.

As an owner on this very very special street, the owner of 1598 Triton Street is currently trying to realize his own dream with the listing of his McMansion:

1598 Triton St., Carlsbad, CA 92011
--4 beds, 4.0 baths, 3,434 sq ft "model home"
--10/2006: purchased for $975,000.
--01/2008: entertaining offers between $1 million to $1.2 million.

Tracking Santa Clara County, California

Population 2007: 1.81 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:548
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:243

01/2007: 3,575 (1,606)___01/2006: 2,838 (1618)
02/2007: 3,774 (1,654)___02/2006: 2,921 (1,776)
03/2007: 4,498 (2,052)___03/2006: 3,353 (2,632)
04/2007: 5,184 (2,009)___04/2006: 3,734 (2,424)
05/2007: 5,866 (2,179)___05/2006: 4,259 (2,496)

Population 2006: 1.22 million
11/27/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:143

11/2006: 8,426
12/2006: 7,953

Population 2007:
01/01 Listing per population ratio 1:159
05/31 Listing per population ratio 1:131

01/01: 7,677
01/31: 7,673
02/28: 7,609
03/20: 7,802
04/30: 8,657
05/31: 9,251

Tracking Santa Clara County, California

Population 2006: 1.77 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:708
8/17/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:335

01/2006: 2,838 (1,486)___01/2005: (1,862)
02/2006: 2,921 (1,776)___02/2005: (1,882)
03/2006: 3,353 (2,632)___03/2005: (2,823)
04/2006: 3,734 (2,424)___04/2005: (2,830)
05/2006: 4,259 (2,496)___05/2005: (2,838)
06/2006: 4,835 (2,763)___06/2005: (3,220)

Tracking San Bernardino County, California

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:129
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:85

01/2007: 16,310 (2,373)___01/2006: (3,321)
02/2007: 17,081 (2,274)___02/2006: (3,316)
03/2007: 18,801 (2,476)___03/2006: (4,633)
04/2007: 20,253 (2,049)___04/2006: (3,841)
05/2007: 22,149 (2,220)___05/2006: (4,148)
06/2007: 22,637 (2,190)___06/2006: (4,385)

Tracking Riverside County, California

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:83
10/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:62

01/2007: 24,931 (3,089)___01/2006: 16,846 (4,695)
02/2007: 26,157 (3,057)___02/2006: 18,767 (4,796)
03/2007: 28,451 (3,680)___03/2006: 20,334 (6,986)
04/2007: 30,277 (2,987)___04/2006: 21,388 (5,444)
05/2007: 31,515 (3,307)___05/2006: 22,952 (6,054)

Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

Tracking Ventura County, California

Population 2006: 817,000
11/26/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:122

11/2006: 6,593 (855)___11/2005: (1,235)
12/2006: 5,677 (978)___12/2005: (1,134)

Population 2007: 825,000
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:150
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:139

01/01: 5,435
01/31: 5,641 (689)___01/2006: (804)

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:422
7/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:176

01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)____01/2005: (2,903)
02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)___02/2005: (2,890)
03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)___03/2005: (5,033)
04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)___04/2005: (4,547)
05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)___05/2005: (4,548)
06/2006: 16,692 (3,862)___06/2005: (4,898)

Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.

Tracking King & Snohomish Counties, Washington

Population 2006: 2.46 million
01/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:305
10/10/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:173

01/2006: 8,425 (2,468)___01/2005: (2,491)
02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)___02/2005: (3,244)
03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)___03/2005: (5,285)
04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)___04/2005: (5,259)
05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)__05/2005: (5,470)
06/2006: 11,415 (5,597)__06/2005: (5,797)

Tracking Ventura County, California

Population 2007: 825,000
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:150
08/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:117

01/2007: 5,641 (689)___01/2006: (804)
02/2007: 6,234 (737)___02/2006: (882)
03/2007: 6,658 (999)___03/2006: (1,326)
04/2007: 5,320 (890)___04/2006: (1,008)
05/2007: 5,759 (861)___05/2006: (1,145)
06/2007: 6,219 (886)___06/2006: (1,227)

Everyone gets a second chance and JME is no different. Four years after a Chapter 7 BK filing, JME started back with his first home purchase in 2002. From then on, he made 4 additional purchases over the next 4-5 years. Two of which he sold for profit:

12313 VIA HACIENDA, EL CAJON, CA 92019
--3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,588 sq ft
--12/2002: purchased for $350,000
--07/2007: sold for $505,000

2643 E BEYER BLVD, SAN YSIDRO, CA 92173
--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,532 sq ft
--09/2006: purchased for $465,000
--01/2007: sold for $510,000

With sales from these two homes, JME was looking at a cool $200,000 in profit. So how did he show off this nice $200k? Why an over 5,000 sqft McMansion in StoneBridge Estate of course. Unfortunately, looks like JME stretched a little bit too far and here we are, all three remaining homes he own are now past due on property taxes.

This next example demonstrates just how difficult it is to get previous flips-gone-flops back on the market. Which also serves as a warning to anyone that might be tempted to think the bottom has neared.

973 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
--4 beds, 5.0 baths, 4,536 sq ft --08/2005: purchased for $1.655 million --01/2007: NOD filed

Tracking San Bernardino County, California

Population 2006: 2 million
11/26/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:112

11/2006: 17,245 (2,926)___11/2005: (3,992)
12/2006: 15,758 (3,154)___12/2005: (4,580)

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:129
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:90

01/01: 15,457
01/31: 16,310 (2,373)___01/2006: (3,321)