Few of the interesting points here regarding these 11 homes:--2 out of 11 are listed for sale--11 out of 11 were purchased or constructed after 2003--11 out of 11 were refi'd, purchased or constructed after 2004--4 of 11 are from 4S Ranch proper--2 of 11 are from Santaluz
11353 AVENIDA DE LOS LOBOS #E, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,230 sqft
--11/04/2005: purchased for $390,000
--05/30/2008: NOD
--not listed or pending

17081 W BERNARDO DR #102, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,040 sqft
--09/27/2004: purchased for $362,990
--11/21/2007: listed for $224,777-$249,777
--05/30/2008: NOD

16588 GETTYSBURG DR, SAN DIEGO 92127

Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.

Everyone gets a second chance and JME is no different. Four years after a Chapter 7 BK filing, JME started back with his first home purchase in 2002. From then on, he made 4 additional purchases over the next 4-5 years. Two of which he sold for profit:

12313 VIA HACIENDA, EL CAJON, CA 92019
--3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,588 sq ft
--12/2002: purchased for $350,000
--07/2007: sold for $505,000

2643 E BEYER BLVD, SAN YSIDRO, CA 92173
--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,532 sq ft
--09/2006: purchased for $465,000
--01/2007: sold for $510,000

With sales from these two homes, JME was looking at a cool $200,000 in profit. So how did he show off this nice $200k? Why an over 5,000 sqft McMansion in StoneBridge Estate of course. Unfortunately, looks like JME stretched a little bit too far and here we are, all three remaining homes he own are now past due on property taxes.

Our most recent 'If Only I Waited...' post on Oxnard prompted one irate anonymous reader to write, "What's up with slamming Oxnard? There are places to live that are in worse shape than Oxnard..."

And we wholeheartedly agree!

Case in point, Bakersfield. Here we have a REO going for 33% less today compared to a year and a half ago...

12109 Trackside Dr., Bakersfield, CA 93312

Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

Yes, this is in the more undesireable part of Lake Forest, the old El Toro to be exact. But price declines got to start somewhere...

This neighborhood reached its peak $/sqft with this home back in May of '05:
23235 Sky Dr., Lake Forest, CA 92630--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,255 sqft--05/2005: purchased for $705,000 ($313/sqft)

4S Ranch is really not a bad place to be. It's got the good schools, it's got the parks and the trails, as well as the convenience of the recently completed Town Center.
The initial master plan circa 2001-2003 was also quite decent. Some of the lot sizes were generous, the parks aplenty, and the sidewalks nice and wide. As for the mello roos? For a 3,000 sqft home at an asking price of roughly $500,000, the 0.5% mello roos only translate to roughly $2,500 per year.
But then the builders got greedy, and by 2005 they also realized the bubble was about to burst. To fully take adventage of the inflated prices at the peak of the bubble, the builders shrunk the lot sizes, reduced the number of parks, and increased the mello roos to 0.7-0.8%. And therefore the same 3,000 sqft home, but with an asking price of $850,000, ends up with $6,400 of mello roos per year.
But the mello roos is just a small part of this madness. Middle class folks, even upper-middle class folks, simply couldn't afford $850,000 for a tract home. It is that simple.
Let's see how one owner who bought at the top is doing these days...

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:422
7/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:176

01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)____01/2005: (2,903)
02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)___02/2005: (2,890)
03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)___03/2005: (5,033)
04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)___04/2005: (4,547)
05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)___05/2005: (4,548)
06/2006: 16,692 (3,862)___06/2005: (4,898)

A month ago Jim the Realtor reminded us of the backlog of REOs using the Deutsche Bank as an example. In his survey back in December of '07, Jim found the following:

Here is the survey of 123 Deutsche REOs in North County:
--64 active listings
--18 pending listings
--41 homes not on market yet (33%)

Jim reported at the time that his foreclosing neighbor at the time was still living rent free 4 months after their foreclosure. Which reminds us of this gem in 4Closure Ranch...

Tracking Santa Clara County, California

Population 2007: 1.81 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:548
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:243

01/2007: 3,575 (1,606)___01/2006: 2,838 (1618)
02/2007: 3,774 (1,654)___02/2006: 2,921 (1,776)
03/2007: 4,498 (2,052)___03/2006: 3,353 (2,632)
04/2007: 5,184 (2,009)___04/2006: 3,734 (2,424)
05/2007: 5,866 (2,179)___05/2006: 4,259 (2,496)

Much less REALTOR®-related NODs in eastern Carlsbad this week. Only 3 out of the 9 new NODs filed between December 6th to 12th are connected to REALTORS®.

BMIT first visited this master planned community in Carlsbad back in June of '06. At the time, the homes were still mostly in the mid-$600k, but already 6% off peak from 2005.
Here's one home sold in August of '05:
5566 Coyote Ct., Carlsbad, CA 92010 --3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,063 sq ft--08/2003: purchased from builder for $548,092.--08/2005: purchased at peak for $747,500. Now two and a half years later, the neighbor down the street is obliterating the neighborhood home value:

Tracking King & Snohomish Counties, Washington

Population 2006: 2.46 million
01/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:305
10/10/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:173

01/2006: 8,425 (2,468)___01/2005: (2,491)
02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)___02/2005: (3,244)
03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)___03/2005: (5,285)
04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)___04/2005: (5,259)
05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)__05/2005: (5,470)
06/2006: 11,415 (5,597)__06/2005: (5,797)

Tracking Ventura County, California

Population 2006: 817,000
11/26/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:122

11/2006: 6,593 (855)___11/2005: (1,235)
12/2006: 5,677 (978)___12/2005: (1,134)

Population 2007: 825,000
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:150
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:139

01/01: 5,435
01/31: 5,641 (689)___01/2006: (804)

1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
--3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
--08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
--09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
--10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

Population 2006: 1.22 million
11/27/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:143

11/2006: 8,426
12/2006: 7,953

Population 2007:
01/01 Listing per population ratio 1:159
05/31 Listing per population ratio 1:131

01/01: 7,677
01/31: 7,673
02/28: 7,609
03/20: 7,802
04/30: 8,657
05/31: 9,251

Tracking San Bernardino County, California

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:129
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:85

01/2007: 16,310 (2,373)___01/2006: (3,321)
02/2007: 17,081 (2,274)___02/2006: (3,316)
03/2007: 18,801 (2,476)___03/2006: (4,633)
04/2007: 20,253 (2,049)___04/2006: (3,841)
05/2007: 22,149 (2,220)___05/2006: (4,148)
06/2007: 22,637 (2,190)___06/2006: (4,385)

Tracking Santa Clara County, California

Population 2006: 1.77 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:708
8/17/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:335

01/2006: 2,838 (1,486)___01/2005: (1,862)
02/2006: 2,921 (1,776)___02/2005: (1,882)
03/2006: 3,353 (2,632)___03/2005: (2,823)
04/2006: 3,734 (2,424)___04/2005: (2,830)
05/2006: 4,259 (2,496)___05/2005: (2,838)
06/2006: 4,835 (2,763)___06/2005: (3,220)

Tracking Riverside County, California

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:83
10/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:62

01/2007: 24,931 (3,089)___01/2006: 16,846 (4,695)
02/2007: 26,157 (3,057)___02/2006: 18,767 (4,796)
03/2007: 28,451 (3,680)___03/2006: 20,334 (6,986)
04/2007: 30,277 (2,987)___04/2006: 21,388 (5,444)
05/2007: 31,515 (3,307)___05/2006: 22,952 (6,054)

In addition to the profiling of our real estate friends foreclosing away, the U-T story this past weekend also had some pretty scary numbers. For example, there were 1,305 actual foreclosures in January, this was up 257% in comparison to a year ago. With only 1,826 homes sold, the number of foreclosures in the county may soon overtake home sales.

What is even scarier is what's not published. These foreclosure numbers are actually lower than expected because of the 'postponement phenomenon.'

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2007: 3.10 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:244
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:155

01/31: 13,302 (2,400)___01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)
02/28: 13,704 (2,449)___02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)
03/31: 15,324 (3,130)___03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)
04/30: 17,094 (2,682)___04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)
05/31: 18,353 (2,675)___05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)

Tracking Ventura County, California

Population 2007: 825,000
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:150
08/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:117

01/2007: 5,641 (689)___01/2006: (804)
02/2007: 6,234 (737)___02/2006: (882)
03/2007: 6,658 (999)___03/2006: (1,326)
04/2007: 5,320 (890)___04/2006: (1,008)
05/2007: 5,759 (861)___05/2006: (1,145)
06/2007: 6,219 (886)___06/2006: (1,227)

14160 BRYCE POINT, Poway, CA 92064
--4 beds, 5.5 baths, 7,716 sq ft on 1.3 acres
--05/2005: purchased for $3.42 million
--06/2007: listed on MLS for $3.295 million
--Price Reduced: 08/23/07 -- $3,295,000 to $2,995,000

Tracking San Bernardino County, California

Population 2006: 2 million
11/26/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:112

11/2006: 17,245 (2,926)___11/2005: (3,992)
12/2006: 15,758 (3,154)___12/2005: (4,580)

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:129
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:90

01/01: 15,457
01/31: 16,310 (2,373)___01/2006: (3,321)

There's so many different angles I can use on this one. But the one I'm going to have to use is simply this: be one with the market, don't fight the flow of the bursting.

You know the market is bad, and it is going to get worse, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. So don't even try to buy right now, just don't do it... even if the place makes you feel at peace with its 'zen-like asian/contemporary interior design.' Just don't do it...

977 Adirondack Place, Chula Vista, CA 91914
--4 beds, 5.0 baths, 3,884 sq ft
--05/2005: purchased for $1.389 million ($358/sqft)

Tracking Los Angeles County, California

Population 2007: 10.33 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:288
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:175

01/2007: 36,715 (6,805)____01/2006: 27,732 (7,309)
02/2007: 41,251 (6,300)____02/2006: 29,420 (7,089)
03/2007: 42,057 (8,353)___03/2006: 31,819 (10,805)
04/2007: 45,918 (7,225)____04/2006: 34,032 (9,284)
05/2007: 52,198 (7,426)____05/2006: 37,847 (10,714)
06/2007: 52,769 (7,580)____06/2006: 42,317 (11,234)

Tracking Sacramento/El Dorado/Placer/Yolo Counties, California

Population 2007: 2.1 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:178
08/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:116

01/2007: 12,480 (1,149)___01/2006: 10,582 (1,309)
02/2007: 12,947 (1,154)___02/2006: 11,215 (1,338)
03/2007: 14,272 (1,459)___03/2006: 11,833 (2,060)
04/2007: 15,755 (1,462)___04/2006: 12,989 (1,739)
05/2007: 16,553 (1,581)___05/2006: 14,824 (2,439)

Tracking Maricopa & Pinal Counties, Arizona

Population 2007: 4.1 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:85
10/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:63

01/2007: 51,913 (4,520)___01/2006: 32,512 (5,260)
02/2007: 53,598 (4,280)___02/2006: 36,176 (5,460)
03/2007: 57,615 (5,385)___03/2006: 39,852 (7,265)
04/2007: 59,616 (4,855)___04/2006: 44,290 (5,980)
05/2007: 60,800 (5,220)___05/2006: 47,187 (6,870)