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'When you put on a super sale, people show up and buy'

From the Sacramento Bee:[W]ith 12,000-plus "For Sale" signs in the region, the market hasn't yet reached bottom, said ReMax's [Randy] Dunham. At month's end there were 12,606 homes for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to Sacramento-based researcher TrendGraphix. The peak in August 2007 was 16,262.
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"Borrowers are more cautious about what they can afford," said Michele Dillingham, a senior loan consultant at Sacramento-based Vitek Mortgage. "A lot of people are buying at below what they would qualify for. They saw what happened (with foreclosures) and don't want it to happen to them."DataQuick stats by county
DataQuick stats by zip (or xls)

From Home Front: Is this sustainable?

I asked veteran Sacramento real estate Carlos Kozlowski of Coldwell banker and his opinion was: yes. Kozlowski believes there is enough pent-up demand to absorb all the thousands of bank repos still to come on the market this year as rising numbers of people continue to lose their homes to foreclosure.

"Prices are not going up. Prices will stay somewhere about where they are until this inventory is absorbed," he said. Then will come the new wave of buyers: the foreclosure refugees allowed back in the market with new federally-backed mortgages. "People who lost homes a year or two ago will be able to buy in 18 months," he said.From the Daily Democrat:Yolo County home sales for April almost equaled those of a year earlier, although prices are still nearly 27 percent below last year's figures.
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It's premature to say that April's numbers signaled a potential housing rebound in California, one of the nation's hottest markets during the boom, said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. Uncertainties include whether the economy gets stuck in a recession, whether the credit crunch persists, and if foreclosures continue to rise, he said. "I think we're a ways from seeing much of a rebound in home values," he said. "When you put on a super sale, people show up and buy."From the Appeal Democrat:Thousands of local residents will receive cuts to their property taxes this summer as a shrinking housing market pulls home prices far below the heights their owners paid in a once white-hot Central Valley market. Though the reductions will return more money to residents, assessors say it will chip away at already-thin police, fire and school budgets in the 2008-09 fiscal year, which starts July 1.
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The heaviest blows in Yuba County will be felt in the communities that sprang up or grew quickly in the first half of the decade, according to Brown — especially Plumas Lake, East Linda, the eastern foothills and Wheatland. The Linda Rural Fire District, whose area includes the 5-year-old Plumas Lake, now relies on property taxes for 80 percent of its revenue, he said.

So abrupt is the rollback that Yuba County officials predict a decline in the total value of residential parcels — a county first.

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  • From the Sacramento Bee: A persistent housing slump that has relentlessly driven down home prices has now wiped out at least three years of home equity gains across much of the Sacramento region...For buyers, who have driven home sellers and much of the real estate industry mad by patiently remaining on the fence, it's fresh proof of a market getting ever more warm and friendly.

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    ...
    DataQuick estimated that 27.6 percent of the region's existing home sales in October involved foreclosure properties. It was 35.9 percent in Sacramento County.
    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: Every business day in the region an average of 85 people lost their homes to lenders, near double the number of foreclosures from June, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com, a Web site for real estate investors.
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    From the Sacramento Bee: As foreclosures continue to grow in the capital-area real estate market, Sacramento and Elk Grove are copying a trend launched last year in Stockton: bus tours of bank-owned homes. As the buying season begins, three tours are planned for Feb. 23. There's one for investors in Sacramento and two for first-time buyers and investors in Elk Grove.
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  • From the Sacramento Bee:In Sacramento County, sales of new and existing homes totaled 1,961 in April, the highest since Sept. 2006, according to DataQuick. The April sales tally was 26.3 percent higher than April 2007 -- the first time that year-over-year sales in the county have posted a gain since March 2005, DataQuick reported.
    ...
    Prices have rapidly dropped with heavily discounted, bank-owned homes accounting for a majority of purchases in the eight-county capital region. That means the lower end of the housing market is fueling much of the surge. Median sales prices -- where half the homes sell for more and half for less -- are down to Feb. 2003 levels in Sacramento County. The county's median sales price in April fell to $232,000 -- down 32 percent from a year ago [the steepest decline yet] and 40 percent off its Aug. 2005, high of $387,000.Jim Wasserman has the breakdown by county here [xls].

  • From the Sacramento Bee: [T]here's no doubt the steep drop in home values – median prices in Sacramento County are almost 28 percent below last year's figures – and relatively low interest rates have sparked interest. [DataQuick's Andrew] LePage said investor buys accounted for 18.6 percent of February closings in Sacramento County. That's up significantly from 12.7 percent in November and December. [The high for investor buys was May 2004 when they accounted for 25 percent of sales.]
    ...
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  • From the Sacramento Bee:

    In the most ominous indicator yet of the capital region's struggling housing market, January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. January's 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties was only 33 more than the 1,782 foreclosures recorded in the same counties that month, according to statistics from La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla and Foreclosures.com. of Fair Oaks.
    ...

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  • From the Sacramento Bee: Banks repossessed nearly 5,300 homes in the capital region during the first three months of 2008, setting a record and pushing the region's foreclosure tally to more than 15,300 since the beginning of 2007....The number of home loan defaults also neared 10,000 during the quarter in Amador, Nevada, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems.

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    ...
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    ...

  • From the Sacramento Bee: Sacramento County, where median sales prices of new and existing homes combined are now 18.3 percent below this time last year, is still California's hardest-hit urban county for declining values.
    ...
    Sacramento County's median sales price for existing homes fell to $285,000 from $295,000 the previous month. That's down 24 percent from the August 2005 peak of $374,000 and lowest since $275,000 in April 2004.

  • From the Sacramento Bee: California's severe housing downturn claimed another fixture of the Sacramento-area homebuilding industry Wednesday when John D. Reynen, co-founder of Reynen & Bardis Communities, filed for personal bankruptcy protection...It's the second major bankruptcy-protection filing involving a privately owned land developer and builder in the capital region.
    ...
    The company, formed more than 30 years ago, has largely shut down homebuilding and recently laid off about half of its 180 employees.Press release available via Home Front.

    From the Sacramento Bee:
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    ...

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  • From the Sacramento Bee: [EDD labor market consultant David] Lyons said it was disturbing that the region has added just 6,600 jobs in the past year, a growth rate of just 0.7 percent. "We haven't been below 1 percent since 1993," he said. Unemployment has risen 1 percentage point in Sacramento in the past year. With housing still suffering and state government likely to slow down its hiring in the face of an estimated $14 billion budget deficit, the short-term outlook for Sacramento is spotty at best.From the Sacramento Business Journal: Year-over-year, construction fell by 7,200 jobs in the region, a 10.1 percent decline, while financial jobs declined by 3,100, off 4.7 percent. Those declines were steeper here than in the state as a whole.

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  • Monterey Village Getting Shredded - photos & video at the Sacramento Real Statistics blog

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    ...
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  • From the Stockton Record: Home-sales auctions have popped in the Central Valley since last summer, but the latest twist is an online auction for new homes with a bidding process similar to that used by eBay.
    ...
    Some residents there aren't happy about the impending auction. Richard Provencio lives at the north end of Crescent Park Circle, a lane that has 14 of the 18 houses to be auctioned off - the remaining four are model homes a block south. "I feel very robbed," he said. "These are the same houses I paid $620,000 for, and now they could be selling for $300,000 to $400,000."...Recently, he counted 15 houses for sale down the long street from his house, and many sit empty because of foreclosure. "Our ghost town," he said. "It's just sad, man."

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    ...

  • From the Wall Street Journal (hat tip Calculated Risk):If you own a home in a former bubble region like California or southern Florida, there's bad news… and really bad news. And they suggest that it is still way too early to go bargain hunting in these markets, although -- of course -- there is always the occasional deal around.

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  • From the Sacramento Bee:
    When DataQuick Information Systems reported this week that Sacramento County posted its first gain in year-over year home sales in 37 months, these were the neighborhoods that made it happen: working-class areas in south Sacramento, North Highlands and North Sacramento, Elverta and Citrus Heights...What they have in common is an abundance of homes with falling values, heavily discounted bank-owned residences and scenes of multiple bids by investors and first-time buyers.
    ...
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  • Some January price statistics for Sacramento County via the Sacramento Real Estate blog:

    • Median: -27.5% YoY
    • Average: -28.4% YoY
    • Price per square foot: -27% YoY

    From the Stockton Record:

      A second major foreclosed-home auction will be coming to Stockton next week, with about 85 Stockton-area houses going up for sale at the San Joaquin County Fairgrounds.
      ...
      "The sellers are motivated, but they're not going to just dump the properties on the market," company spokesman Joe Joffrion said.
      ...

    • From the Sacramento Bee:When times get tough, the tough ... take a sabbatical. That's the philosophy of developer Martin Tuttle, who is temporarily leaving his VP post with Sacramento builder New Faze Development.
      ...
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      ...

    • From the Lodi News-Sentinel:The housing boom was good for Ben Juarez, like so many other Lodi residents. It meant steady work and extra cash from overtime jobs, installing air conditioners and gutters at tract homes across the region.
      ...
      Now, with the housing bust, life is full of worry for Juarez — who's been jobless since November — and for thousands like him in the area. The EDD estimates that Lodi's jobless rate reached 7.3 percent in December, the latest figures available. That's up from 5.5 percent in December 2006 and 5.6 percent in December 2005....It adds to up to more than 1,000 extra residents without work compared to the past couple years. Because of the epic housing meltdown, many of those unemployed are local carpenters, plumbers, landscapers, real estate and finance workers.

    • From the Sacramento Bee: The prediction season is here. On Thursday, Greg Paquin, president of the Folsom-based Gregory Group, told capital- area home builders that they can expect to sell 7,710 new homes next year in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. That compares with expectations of 8,116 homes this year, he said. Builders had almost 9,600 sales last year.