According to SDLookup, Rancho Bernardo 92128 currently has 310 listings for sale. For a population of 42,728, that gets us a listing per population ratio of 1:138. Should this ratio be lower? Is 92128 also suffering from the phantom inventory phenomenon?

12047 ALTA CARMEL CT #187 SAN DIEGO 92128--5/14: NOD filed--not listed on MLS

Out of Jim the Realtor's April Actives vs Pendings zipcode comparisons, Rancho Penasquitos is the best out of all of the zip codes with a strong Active vs. Pending ratio 1.80. Sure enough, out of a population of 47,217, there's only 173 listings, translating to a listing per population ratio of 1:273, in stark contrast to 92127's 1:69.

But what about that Phantom/Shadow/Stealth Inventory? Here's Watson Ranch, a smallish development built in late 2002 and 2003 just north of Route 56, we got a single home for sale on Torrey Bella Court:
13878 Torrey Bella, San Diego, CA 92129

There's a pervasive idea out in the community that the high end of the market is doing much better during this downturn. Unfortunately for the folks in Santaluz (Rancho Santa Fe adjacent master planned golf course community), there are quite a bit of sleepless nights these days.

3956 Lago Di Grata Circle, San Diego - Carmel Valley, CA 92130
--5 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,246 sqft
--08/2002: purchased for $759,000
--10/2004: refinanced with Countrywide
--04/22/2008: listed on MLS for $1.1 million
--05/15/2008: NOD filed

So far, this home is the only NOD in Monte Claire, a community of 50 homes built in 2000. As for other signs of distress, there's 3 properties in property tax delinquency.

Using foreclosure.com as the source, foreclosure figures are listed first, pre-foreclosures are listed next, with the % of pre-foreclosures moving forward to foreclosures in parentheses. These are cumulative numbers. Special thanks to reader moqui for Aug '05 and June '06 data.

San Diego County
08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
12/30/06: 1,251/4,637 (27.0%)
01/30/07: 1,475/4,760 (31.0%)
02/27/07: 1,879/5,008 (37.5%)

So how much will W's Subprime Freeze really help put the break on the market's dive back to affordable and realistic pricing?

May not be much according to this CNNMoney article:

Rich Toscano of the famed Piggington.com has been tracking San Diego prices using various methods such as the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index as well as the median price per sq ft. In his latest update, he brings us a combo-pak, a preview of what is to come on the Case-Shiller HPI (which is generally 3 months behind) by forecasting price movement using the median price per sqft within the same graph.

As the army of irresponsible home debtors that took out ballooning ARMs and multiple refi's foreclose across the country, they are not just leaving behind mountains of trash and billions of unpaid debt.

They are also leaving behind countless innocent pets to fend for themselves.

This is hot off the press, folks. According to Dream Homes Magazine, La Jolla homeowners gained 315% in the last decade! Now that's pretty neat!

Our friend John the Investor already knew this back in 2004. He did the math and figured that if he bought $3 million worth of La Jolla condos and kept them around, he'll be looking at $12.5 million in 10 years.

Johnny then sat out to buy a bunch of La Jolla condos between 2004 and 2005. With three years gone by, surely he is looking at some decent appreciation, no?

4S Ranch is really not a bad place to be. It's got the good schools, it's got the parks and the trails, as well as the convenience of the recently completed Town Center.
The initial master plan circa 2001-2003 was also quite decent. Some of the lot sizes were generous, the parks aplenty, and the sidewalks nice and wide. As for the mello roos? For a 3,000 sqft home at an asking price of roughly $500,000, the 0.5% mello roos only translate to roughly $2,500 per year.
But then the builders got greedy, and by 2005 they also realized the bubble was about to burst. To fully take adventage of the inflated prices at the peak of the bubble, the builders shrunk the lot sizes, reduced the number of parks, and increased the mello roos to 0.7-0.8%. And therefore the same 3,000 sqft home, but with an asking price of $850,000, ends up with $6,400 of mello roos per year.
But the mello roos is just a small part of this madness. Middle class folks, even upper-middle class folks, simply couldn't afford $850,000 for a tract home. It is that simple.
Let's see how one owner who bought at the top is doing these days...

With its beaches, restaurants, and shops, La Jolla's desirability is second to none. It doesn't hurt that you are guaranteed that 315% increase in property value over 10 years either. So if you have a lot of cash lying around burning a hole in your shorts, what are you going to do?

JMS fell in mad love with La Jolla and decided to buy it up big time. Here are three properties that JMS purchased in 2003 and 2004. Keep in mind that these are just 3 out of 22 properties JMS owns in and around La Jolla.

BMIT first featured Bressi Ranch in eastern Carlsbad back in March of '06. At the time, a comparison was mistakenly made between model homes that were sold to a group of investors from LA to the deals of the day offered by Lennar at the time.

Dolphine Cove in Otay Mesa is a 121 home community developed by local builder Reynolds Communities in 2002. When the project opened in mid-2002, 1,800 sqft homes went for $350k while 3,000 sqft homes went for mid-$400k.

As the prices took off for outer space in 2003, these same homes went for between $450k to $550k. With the prices spiral up and up some more, prices reached north of $800k with prices per sqft closing in on $300/sqft.

We learned over the weekend how dangerous it is to purchase at a time of pricing free fall. Certainly Mr. Vazquez's $30k to $55k loss just after closing on his home bring to light the events happening in the inner city zone of San Diego.

But what about other inner-city-like areas in SoCal? Today, we journey to the other end of SoCal to Oxnard, where the boom caused a false spike of epic proportion. Here's the $/sqft on one Lombard Street in a newer part of Oxnard:Here's one example of the village idiot that bought at the very peak. Check out the almost $300k profit the original owner made between mid '03 to early '06. That's right folks, a 71% price spike in 2.5 years!

12721 Westly Lane, San Deigo - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131--4 beds, 3 baths, 3,390 sqft on 6,000 sqft lot with view of canyons.--08/2004: first purchased from builder for $883,000--06/2007: purchased by current owner for $1.375 million

12728 Westly Lane, San Diego - Scripps Ranch, CA 92131

Hour four of the deadline marathon sees only a couple of deals unfold, with Ottawa finally showing signs of movement towards the end of the hour. No major names but some interesting pieces of the various puzzles being shifted around the league.

Before the Senators pick up some assistance however there is word of moves out of Colorado, where Ruslan Salei makes his plans to head for Florida while the Panthers pick up Karlis Skrastins and a third round pick.

TSN--Avalanche get Salei from Florida
Sportsnet--Salei to Avalanche

Writer and actress Nia Vardalos is sponsoring a toy drive at Raleigh Studios on Monday, November 26th. The event will take place from 10am-1pm at the Van Ness gate (south of Melrose Avenue). All WGA, SAG, Teamsters, AFTRA, other unions and supporters are welcome.

Yes, this is in the more undesireable part of Lake Forest, the old El Toro to be exact. But price declines got to start somewhere...

This neighborhood reached its peak $/sqft with this home back in May of '05:
23235 Sky Dr., Lake Forest, CA 92630--4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,255 sqft--05/2005: purchased for $705,000 ($313/sqft)

1135 PEACH AVE #A, El Cajon, CA 92021
--3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,060 sqft on 2,613 sqft lot.
--08/2000: purchase price of $145,000 ($137/sqft).
--09/2004: purchased by REALTOR®/Owner for $350,000 ($330/sqft).
--10/2007: listed on MLS for $375,000 ($354/sqft).

Spelling mistakes on the MLS are not unusual, but this gives us a glimpse into the seller's desperation...43446 MONTE COURT, Temecula, CA 92592
--4 beds, 3.0 baths, 3,036 sq ft
--06/2003: purchased from builder for $378,500.
--10/2006: sold to current sucker for $508,000.
--10/10/2007: current sucker listed home for sale at $590,000.
--10/20/2007: realized he was delusional and reduced to $410,000.

Few of the interesting points here regarding these 11 homes:--2 out of 11 are listed for sale--11 out of 11 were purchased or constructed after 2003--11 out of 11 were refi'd, purchased or constructed after 2004--4 of 11 are from 4S Ranch proper--2 of 11 are from Santaluz
11353 AVENIDA DE LOS LOBOS #E, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,230 sqft
--11/04/2005: purchased for $390,000
--05/30/2008: NOD
--not listed or pending

17081 W BERNARDO DR #102, SAN DIEGO 92127
--1,040 sqft
--09/27/2004: purchased for $362,990
--11/21/2007: listed for $224,777-$249,777
--05/30/2008: NOD

16588 GETTYSBURG DR, SAN DIEGO 92127

14160 BRYCE POINT, Poway, CA 92064
--4 beds, 5.5 baths, 7,716 sq ft on 1.3 acres
--05/2005: purchased for $3.42 million
--06/2007: listed on MLS for $3.295 million
--Price Reduced: 08/23/07 -- $3,295,000 to $2,995,000

Back in August of '07 BMIT featured a flipper flopping away in the Palomino neighborhood of 4Closure Ranch. After the purchase of the flip in February of '06 and holding on for a year, Cristina the Flopper® listed the home on the market in February of '07.

15266 Winesprings Court, San Diego/4S Ranch, CA 92127 (4,136 sqft)

The Ranchos at Vistamonte in San Pasqual Valley consist of 80 homes in a gated community surrounded by rocky hills with dry bushes. Whether it was luck or good planning, the recent firestorm charred the entire surrounding hillside but spared the entire community, including a few homes in construction with bare 2 by 4's.

On this Thanksgiving, the residents of San Diego's newest community have a lot to be thankful for,

...the tree-lined streets,
...the expansive parks,
...the new and exclusive schools,
...the 18 miles of hiking and biking trails,
...and the acres of natural open space

Back in June of '06 we featured this 2,004 sqft San Marcos home written up by the selling agent as being in 'Great Condition' but listed as an 'As Is' short sale. Looks like a knife catcher actually fell in love with the well manicured yard and the designer lawn chairs.